Budget 2018: Annex 1 - Economic and Fiscal Outlook

Table of Contents

Chart A1.1

Labour Market Since November 2015
Date	Cumulative change in employment (left scale)	Unemployment rate (right scale)
2015-11		7.1
2015-12	9.0	7.1
2016-01	4.5	7.2
2016-02	11.5	7.2
2016-03	42.8	7.0
2016-04	56.7	7.1
2016-05	48.5	6.9
2016-06	67.7	6.8
2016-07	57.6	7.0
2016-08	94.5	7.0
2016-09	161.1	7.0
2016-10	196.9	6.9
2016-11	198.9	6.8
2016-12	231.2	6.9
2017-01	281.8	6.7
2017-02	303.4	6.6
2017-03	322.0	6.6
2017-04	338.8	6.4
2017-05	371.4	6.5
2017-06	426.5	6.5
2017-07	449.6	6.3
2017-08	472.2	6.2
2017-09	484.8	6.2
2017-10	512.5	6.2
2017-11	593.7	5.9
2017-12	658.5	5.8
2018-01	570.5	5.9

Average Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Since 2016Q2
Countries	per cent
Canada	3.2
Germany	2.4
United States	2.4
France	2.0
United Kingdom	1.9
Japan	1.5
Italy	1.5

Chart A1.2

Chart A1.2a

Monthly Employment Gains and Unemployment Rate
	Employment change (left scale)
2002	45.1
2003	25.0
2004	17.6
2005	18.0
2006	27.8
2007	30.0
2008	1.8
2009	-13.7
2010	25.7
2011	16.7
2012	26.0
2013	10.9
2014	9.0
2015	12.7
2016	18.5
2017	35.6

Chart A1.2b

Growth in Average Weekly Earnings
Date	per cent, year over year
2012-01-01	1.4
2012-02-01	1.2
2012-03-01	1.9
2012-04-01	2.2
2012-05-01	2.1
2012-06-01	2.7
2012-07-01	3.6
2012-08-01	3.6
2012-09-01	3.4
2012-10-01	2.4
2012-11-01	2.7
2012-12-01	2.6
2013-01-01	1.8
2013-02-01	2.8
2013-03-01	1.9
2013-04-01	1.6
2013-05-01	2.5
2013-06-01	1.8
2013-07-01	1.0
2013-08-01	0.8
2013-09-01	1.1
2013-10-01	1.4
2013-11-01	2.1
2013-12-01	2.4
2014-01-01	2.5
2014-02-01	2.4
2014-03-01	2.6
2014-04-01	3.1
2014-05-01	2.4
2014-06-01	2.9
2014-07-01	3.5
2014-08-01	3.1
2014-09-01	3.0
2014-10-01	2.7
2014-11-01	1.8
2014-12-01	1.8
2015-01-01	2.7
2015-02-01	2.5
2015-03-01	2.7
2015-04-01	2.4
2015-05-01	1.3
2015-06-01	1.8
2015-07-01	1.4
2015-08-01	0.6
2015-09-01	1.5
2015-10-01	1.4
2015-11-01	1.5
2015-12-01	1.7
2016-01-01	0.1
2016-02-01	0.4
2016-03-01	0.5
2016-04-01	-0.2
2016-05-01	0.6
2016-06-01	0.4
2016-07-01	-0.2
2016-08-01	1.4
2016-09-01	0.1
2016-10-01	-0.1
2016-11-01	0.9
2016-12-01	1.4
2017-01-01	1.7
2017-02-01	1.1
2017-03-01	1.0
2017-04-01	1.9
2017-05-01	1.7
2017-06-01	1.5
2017-07-01	1.4
2017-08-01	1.9
2017-09-01	2.9
2017-10-01	3.1
2017-11-01	2.8

Chart A1.3

Chart A1.3a

Growth in Real Household Consumption and Real Compensation of Employees
per cent, year over year
	Real compensation of employees	Real household final consumption expenditure
2007 Q1	4.9	4.0
2007 Q2	4.4	4.6
2007 Q3	3.6	4.4
2007 Q4	2.9	5.2
2008 Q1	3.6	5.1
2008 Q2	2.4	3.7
2008 Q3	1.0	2.8
2008 Q4	1.5	-0.3
2009 Q1	-0.8	-1.4
2009 Q2	-1.5	-0.7
2009 Q3	-0.9	0.4
2009 Q4	-1.6	2.3
2010 Q1	-0.6	3.8
2010 Q2	1.4	3.8
2010 Q3	2.1	3.5
2010 Q4	2.4	3.7
2011 Q1	3.4	2.8
2011 Q2	2.1	2.4
2011 Q3	2.2	2.0
2011 Q4	2.2	1.7
2012 Q1	1.6	2.1
2012 Q2	3.1	1.8
2012 Q3	3.7	1.9
2012 Q4	3.6	1.9
2013 Q1	3.8	1.9
2013 Q2	3.2	2.7
2013 Q3	2.5	2.8
2013 Q4	3.1	2.9
2014 Q1	2.2	2.6
2014 Q2	1.7	2.7
2014 Q3	2.2	2.7
2014 Q4	1.5	2.8
2015 Q1	2.6	2.5
2015 Q2	2.2	2.0
2015 Q3	1.0	2.0
2015 Q4	1.0	1.9
2016 Q1	-0.1	2.2
2016 Q2	0.0	2.3
2016 Q3	0.4	2.4
2016 Q4	0.8	2.6
2017 Q1	1.1	3.1
2017 Q2	2.0	3.8
2017 Q3	2.7	4.0

Chart A1.3b

The data from chart A1.3b cannot be released due to legal, licensing, or copryright reasons.

Chart A1.4

Provincial Unemployment Rates
per cent
	January 2018	July 2014
Que.	5.4	8.1
Ont.	5.5	7.6
B.C.	4.8	6.2
N.S.	8.2	9.6
Can.	5.9	7.1
N.B.	9.1	9.8
Man.	5.6	5.3
P.E.I.	10.6	8.9
N.L.	14.0	12.2
Sask.	5.4	3.3
Alta.	7.0	4.5

Long-Term Unemployment as a Share of Total Unemployment
per cent
	15 years and over	15-24 years old	25-54 years old	55 years and over
1990	18.5	10.5	21.1	28.2
1991	23.3	14.2	26.1	33.9
1992	28.1	16.8	31.4	42.4
1993	30.9	18.5	34.4	43.1
1994	30.3	17.6	33.7	43.3
1995	27.2	14.6	30.6	41.2
1996	27.1	14.0	31.2	37.2
1997	24.9	12.3	29.4	35.1
1998	22.2	11.0	25.9	35.4
1999	19.5	9.1	23.1	32.7
2000	17.6	7.6	21.6	26.3
2001	15.1	6.3	18.0	25.5
2002	16.6	6.2	19.9	29.4
2003	16.4	6.4	19.4	28.5
2004	15.9	6.1	19.4	25.8
2005	15.3	6.0	18.0	26.7
2006	14.2	4.9	17.4	23.1
2007	13.2	4.3	15.9	22.9
2008	13.1	4.6	16.0	21.3
2009	16.1	7.1	18.4	26.4
2010	21.2	8.5	24.9	32.0
2011	21.3	9.1	25.1	31.4
2012	19.3	8.7	22.4	29.2
2013	20.1	9.8	23.2	28.5
2014	20.0	10.2	22.4	29.6
2015	18.9	9.9	20.7	28.2
2016	19.4	9.1	21.2	29.8
2017	19.8	8.9	21.3	30.1

Chart A1.5

Chart A1.5a

Real Business Investment Growth and the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS) Indicator
	Real business investment (right scale)	BOS indicator (left scale)
2001 Q1	4.1	0.52
2001 Q2	2.8	-2.51
2001 Q3	1.8	-3.63
2001 Q4	-4.9	-5.00
2002 Q1	-7.6	-2.95
2002 Q2	-6.8	0.74
2002 Q3	-5.1	0.53
2002 Q4	1.5	-0.63
2003 Q1	4.6	-0.74
2003 Q2	5.3	-1.92
2003 Q3	6.7	-0.46
2003 Q4	10.4	-0.82
2004 Q1	10.8	-0.76
2004 Q2	10.3	0.98
2004 Q3	9.1	1.18
2004 Q4	7.7	0.49
2005 Q1	9.4	1.35
2005 Q2	10.2	1.11
2005 Q3	12.8	3.10
2005 Q4	14.6	2.92
2006 Q1	12.2	2.40
2006 Q2	12.1	2.02
2006 Q3	8.5	1.39
2006 Q4	5.3	1.28
2007 Q1	4.1	2.24
2007 Q2	2.4	1.33
2007 Q3	1.8	0.42
2007 Q4	3.4	0.59
2008 Q1	6.6	0.17
2008 Q2	6.1	1.67
2008 Q3	5.2	-0.87
2008 Q4	-1.9	-7.36
2009 Q1	-19.2	-6.56
2009 Q2	-22.6	-4.44
2009 Q3	-21.6	-2.53
2009 Q4	-15.1	-1.16
2010 Q1	4.7	-0.14
2010 Q2	14.1	1.14
2010 Q3	16.6	1.54
2010 Q4	18.1	1.96
2011 Q1	14.6	1.82
2011 Q2	13.1	3.32
2011 Q3	10.1	0.89
2011 Q4	8.2	1.07
2012 Q1	8.3	1.62
2012 Q2	6.7	1.68
2012 Q3	6.6	0.26
2012 Q4	5.8	-0.25
2013 Q1	5.2	-1.10
2013 Q2	3.8	-0.07
2013 Q3	3.9	0.35
2013 Q4	4.0	0.70
2014 Q1	3.1	2.02
2014 Q2	3.5	0.13
2014 Q3	4.3	1.37
2014 Q4	4.8	-0.50
2015 Q1	-4.5	-0.67
2015 Q2	-8.3	-1.23
2015 Q3	-12.6	-1.13
2015 Q4	-15.8	-2.88
2016 Q1	-10.9	-1.43
2016 Q2	-9.2	-1.61
2016 Q3	-5.4	-0.78
2016 Q4	-7.5	1.03
2017 Q1	-1.8	0.68
2017 Q2	1.4	2.77
2017 Q3	1.6	0.83
2017 Q4		2.49

Chart A1.5b

Real Business Investment Growth and Capacity Utilization
	Real business investment (right scale)	Industrial capacity utilization (left scale)	Average capacity utilization since 1987 (left scale)
2001 Q1	4.09	84.1	83.0
2001 Q2	2.83	83.8	83.0
2001 Q3	1.78	82.5	83.0
2001 Q4	-4.86	81.9	83.0
2002 Q1	-7.62	83.5	83.0
2002 Q2	-6.83	84.7	83.0
2002 Q3	-5.13	84.6	83.0
2002 Q4	1.48	84.2	83.0
2003 Q1	4.62	84.1	83.0
2003 Q2	5.30	83.5	83.0
2003 Q3	6.72	84.1	83.0
2003 Q4	10.36	85.4	83.0
2004 Q1	10.81	85.4	83.0
2004 Q2	10.28	85.8	83.0
2004 Q3	9.09	86.0	83.0
2004 Q4	7.66	85.9	83.0
2005 Q1	9.43	85.5	83.0
2005 Q2	10.20	85.8	83.0
2005 Q3	12.79	86.1	83.0
2005 Q4	14.63	86.6	83.0
2006 Q1	12.17	86.4	83.0
2006 Q2	12.15	85.5	83.0
2006 Q3	8.52	84.5	83.0
2006 Q4	5.33	84.2	83.0
2007 Q1	4.08	85.6	83.0
2007 Q2	2.39	86.0	83.0
2007 Q3	1.80	85.3	83.0
2007 Q4	3.44	83.2	83.0
2008 Q1	6.55	81.2	83.0
2008 Q2	6.12	80.9	83.0
2008 Q3	5.23	81.5	83.0
2008 Q4	-1.95	79.2	83.0
2009 Q1	-19.25	74.8	83.0
2009 Q2	-22.59	72.7	83.0
2009 Q3	-21.60	73.5	83.0
2009 Q4	-15.12	75.5	83.0
2010 Q1	4.69	77.5	83.0
2010 Q2	14.09	79.1	83.0
2010 Q3	16.61	79.5	83.0
2010 Q4	18.11	79.9	83.0
2011 Q1	14.61	80.7	83.0
2011 Q2	13.10	80.3	83.0
2011 Q3	10.06	82.0	83.0
2011 Q4	8.22	82.1	83.0
2012 Q1	8.26	81.6	83.0
2012 Q2	6.68	81.6	83.0
2012 Q3	6.62	80.6	83.0
2012 Q4	5.76	80.2	83.0
2013 Q1	5.22	80.9	83.0
2013 Q2	3.81	80.5	83.0
2013 Q3	3.94	80.9	83.0
2013 Q4	3.97	81.7	83.0
2014 Q1	3.05	81.3	83.0
2014 Q2	3.54	82.8	83.0
2014 Q3	4.35	82.2	83.0
2014 Q4	4.77	82.7	83.0
2015 Q1	-4.47	81.3	83.0
2015 Q2	-8.27	80.0	83.0
2015 Q3	-12.62	80.6	83.0
2015 Q4	-15.78	80.0	83.0
2016 Q1	-10.95	80.2	83.0
2016 Q2	-9.21	78.4	83.0
2016 Q3	-5.37	80.7	83.0
2016 Q4	-7.48	81.4	83.0
2017 Q1	-1.79	82.7	83.0
2017 Q2	1.40	84.3	83.0
2017 Q3	1.65	85.0	83.0

Chart A1.6

Canadian Real Exports
index, 2014Q3 = 100
	Total exports	Non-energy goods	Energy goods	Services
2013 Q1	91.1	91.3	93.9	91.8
2013 Q2	92.7	93.2	93.9	93.5
2013 Q3	92.4	91.4	96.2	95.9
2013 Q4	93.4	92.6	97.1	95.3
2014 Q1	92.8	91.3	94.7	97.2
2014 Q2	98.8	98.9	99.3	100.3
2014 Q3	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
2014 Q4	99.9	99.6	97.8	102.3
2015 Q1	99.4	98.2	102.8	103.0
2015 Q2	101.1	100.5	103.5	103.0
2015 Q3	102.7	102.6	104.3	103.8
2015 Q4	101.9	102.4	101.2	103.1
2016 Q1	104.0	104.4	103.1	105.9
2016 Q2	100.2	100.2	97.3	106.1
2016 Q3	102.3	102.3	102.8	107.5
2016 Q4	102.6	101.7	110.9	108.0
2017 Q1	103.2	101.7	115.1	108.3
2017 Q2	104.8	102.5	119.3	109.0
2017 Q3	102.0	99.0	114.5	109.8

Canadian Real Exports and Index of U.S. Demand for Canadian Imports
	Total Canadian exports (left scale) billions of chained 2007 dollars	Index of U.S. demand for Canadian exports (right scale) index, 2014Q1 = 100
2014 Q1	527.5	100.0
2014 Q2	562.0	100.9
2014 Q3	568.7	101.7
2014 Q4	568.3	102.0
2015 Q1	565.2	102.5
2015 Q2	575.2	103.4
2015 Q3	584.1	103.8
2015 Q4	579.3	103.7
2016 Q1	591.2	103.3
2016 Q2	569.9	103.8
2016 Q3	582.0	104.4
2016 Q4	583.6	104.7
2017 Q1	587.0	105.6
2017 Q2	595.8	106.5
2017 Q3	579.9	107.2

Chart A1.7

The data from chart A1.7 cannot be released due to legal, licensing, or copryright reasons.

Chart A1.9

The data from chart A1.9 cannot be released due to legal, licensing, or copryright reasons.

Chart A1.10

Global Real GDP Growth Outlook
Year	per cent
2010	5.4
2011	4.3
2012	3.5
2013	3.5
2014	3.6
2015	3.4
2016	3.2
2017	3.7
2018	3.9
2019	3.9

Percentage of Countries in Recession
	per cent
1980	25.7
1981	25.0
1982	32.4
1983	32.4
1984	15.2
1985	20.0
1986	15.8
1987	18.5
1988	16.3
1989	15.6
1990	24.7
1991	24.5
1992	23.7
1993	31.0
1994	21.8
1995	15.2
1996	8.6
1997	12.6
1998	15.2
1999	18.2
2000	11.0
2001	14.9
2002	12.2
2003	10.0
2004	5.3
2005	5.8
2006	5.2
2007	4.7
2008	13.6
2009	47.6
2010	10.5
2011	10.0
2012	18.2
2013	14.1
2014	9.9
2015	12.0
2016	13.0
2017	6.8
2018	3.1
2019	2.6
2020	2.1
2021	1.6
2022	2.1

Chart A1.11

Assets Held by Central Banks
per cent of national GDP
	Bank of Japan (left scale)	European Central Bank (right scale)	U.S. Federal Reserve (right scale)
2007 Q1	21.1	12.6	6.1
2007 Q2	18.7	12.9	6.0
2007 Q3	21.0	13.2	6.1
2007 Q4	21.0	15.8	6.1
2008 Q1	21.4	14.1	6.1
2008 Q2	19.3	14.5	6.0
2008 Q3	21.8	18.2	8.2
2008 Q4	24.0	21.8	15.4
2009 Q1	25.5	19.8	14.4
2009 Q2	22.3	20.7	14.1
2009 Q3	23.8	19.9	14.9
2009 Q4	24.9	20.3	15.3
2010 Q1	24.6	20.7	15.7
2010 Q2	22.7	21.6	15.7
2010 Q3	23.8	19.5	15.3
2010 Q4	25.7	20.7	15.9
2011 Q1	28.9	19.4	17.2
2011 Q2	26.7	19.9	18.5
2011 Q3	27.8	23.3	18.3
2011 Q4	28.9	27.8	18.5
2012 Q1	27.8	30.1	18.0
2012 Q2	29.0	31.6	17.8
2012 Q3	30.5	31.1	17.3
2012 Q4	32.1	30.1	17.8
2013 Q1	33.1	26.9	19.4
2013 Q2	37.3	24.5	21.0
2013 Q3	41.2	23.6	22.3
2013 Q4	44.2	22.7	23.7
2014 Q1	47.2	21.4	24.8
2014 Q2	50.2	20.5	25.2
2014 Q3	54.0	20.2	25.3
2014 Q4	58.0	21.5	25.4
2015 Q1	61.1	22.4	25.1
2015 Q2	64.9	23.9	24.8
2015 Q3	68.6	24.9	24.6
2015 Q4	71.9	26.2	24.5
2016 Q1	75.5	27.5	24.5
2016 Q2	80.3	30.1	24.1
2016 Q3	84.9	31.8	23.8
2016 Q4	88.2	33.6	23.5
2017 Q1	90.7	37.3	23.5
2017 Q2	92.1	37.9	23.2
2017 Q3	93.5	38.5	22.8
2017 Q4	95.0		22.5

Chart A1.11b

The data from chart A1.11 cannot be released due to legal, licensing, or copryright reasons.

Chart A1.12

Chart A1.12a

U.S. Actual and Potential Real GDP
trillions of US$2009
	Real GDP	Potential real GDP
2007 Q1	14.7	14.7
2007 Q2	14.8	14.8
2007 Q3	14.9	14.9
2007 Q4	15.0	14.9
2008 Q1	14.9	15.0
2008 Q2	15.0	15.1
2008 Q3	14.9	15.1
2008 Q4	14.6	15.2
2009 Q1	14.4	15.2
2009 Q2	14.4	15.3
2009 Q3	14.4	15.3
2009 Q4	14.5	15.4
2010 Q1	14.6	15.4
2010 Q2	14.7	15.4
2010 Q3	14.8	15.5
2010 Q4	14.9	15.5
2011 Q1	14.9	15.5
2011 Q2	15.0	15.6
2011 Q3	15.0	15.6
2011 Q4	15.2	15.7
2012 Q1	15.3	15.7
2012 Q2	15.4	15.8
2012 Q3	15.4	15.8
2012 Q4	15.4	15.9
2013 Q1	15.5	16.0
2013 Q2	15.5	16.0
2013 Q3	15.6	16.1
2013 Q4	15.8	16.1
2014 Q1	15.8	16.2
2014 Q2	15.9	16.3
2014 Q3	16.1	16.3
2014 Q4	16.2	16.4
2015 Q1	16.4	16.5
2015 Q2	16.5	16.5
2015 Q3	16.5	16.6
2015 Q4	16.5	16.7
2016 Q1	16.6	16.7
2016 Q2	16.7	16.8
2016 Q3	16.8	16.9
2016 Q4	16.9	16.9
2017 Q1	16.9	17.0
2017 Q2	17.0	17.1
2017 Q3	17.2	17.1
2017 Q4	17.3	17.2

Chart A1.12b

25-54 Age Group Employment Rate and Overall Wage Growth
	Employment rate of 25-54 age group (left scale)	Overall hourly wage growth (right scale)
2007-01-01	80.3
2007-02-01	80.1
2007-03-01	80.2	3.4
2007-04-01	80	3.1
2007-05-01	80	3.5
2007-06-01	79.9	3.6
2007-07-01	79.8	3.3
2007-08-01	79.8	3.3
2007-09-01	79.7	3.1
2007-10-01	79.6	3
2007-11-01	79.7	3.1
2007-12-01	79.7	2.9
2008-01-01	80	2.9
2008-02-01	79.9	2.9
2008-03-01	79.8	3
2008-04-01	79.6	2.9
2008-05-01	79.5	3.1
2008-06-01	79.4	2.7
2008-07-01	79.2	3.1
2008-08-01	78.8	3.3
2008-09-01	78.8	3.3
2008-10-01	78.4	3.3
2008-11-01	78.1	3.5
2008-12-01	77.6	3.6
2009-01-01	77	3.6
2009-02-01	76.7	3.4
2009-03-01	76.2	3.3
2009-04-01	76.2	3.4
2009-05-01	75.9	2.9
2009-06-01	75.9	2.9
2009-07-01	75.8	2.7
2009-08-01	75.6	2.4
2009-09-01	75.1	2.4
2009-10-01	75	2.5
2009-11-01	75.2	2.1
2009-12-01	74.8	2
2010-01-01	75.1	2.1
2010-02-01	75.1	2.1
2010-03-01	75.1	1.8
2010-04-01	75.4	1.8
2010-05-01	75.1	1.9
2010-06-01	75.2	1.8
2010-07-01	75.1	1.8
2010-08-01	75	1.8
2010-09-01	75.1	1.8
2010-10-01	75	1.9
2010-11-01	74.8	1.8
2010-12-01	75	1.8
2011-01-01	75.2	2
2011-02-01	75.1	1.8
2011-03-01	75.3	1.8
2011-04-01	75.1	1.9
2011-05-01	75.2	2
2011-06-01	75	2.1
2011-07-01	75	2.3
2011-08-01	75.1	1.9
2011-09-01	74.9	1.9
2011-10-01	74.9	2.1
2011-11-01	75.3	2
2011-12-01	75.4	2
2012-01-01	75.5	1.7
2012-02-01	75.5	1.8
2012-03-01	75.7	2.1
2012-04-01	75.7	2.1
2012-05-01	75.7	1.7
2012-06-01	75.6	2
2012-07-01	75.6	1.7
2012-08-01	75.7	1.9
2012-09-01	76	2
2012-10-01	76.1	1.5
2012-11-01	75.8	1.9
2012-12-01	76	2.1
2013-01-01	75.6	2.1
2013-02-01	75.8	2.2
2013-03-01	75.8	1.9
2013-04-01	75.8	2
2013-05-01	76	2.1
2013-06-01	75.9	2.1
2013-07-01	76	2.1
2013-08-01	76	2.3
2013-09-01	76	2
2013-10-01	75.6	2.2
2013-11-01	76.1	2.2
2013-12-01	76.1	1.9
2014-01-01	76.4	2
2014-02-01	76.4	2.2
2014-03-01	76.6	2.1
2014-04-01	76.5	2
2014-05-01	76.4	2.1
2014-06-01	76.9	2
2014-07-01	76.7	2.1
2014-08-01	76.8	2.2
2014-09-01	76.8	2.2
2014-10-01	76.9	2
2014-11-01	76.9	2
2014-12-01	77.1	2
2015-01-01	77.1	2.2
2015-02-01	77.2	1.9
2015-03-01	77.2	2.2
2015-04-01	77.2	2.2
2015-05-01	77.2	2.3
2015-06-01	77.4	2.2
2015-07-01	77.1	2.1
2015-08-01	77.2	2.2
2015-09-01	77.2	2.2
2015-10-01	77.2	2.5
2015-11-01	77.4	2.4
2015-12-01	77.4	2.6
2016-01-01	77.7	2.5
2016-02-01	77.8	2.4
2016-03-01	78	2.5
2016-04-01	77.8	2.6
2016-05-01	77.8	2.4
2016-06-01	77.9	2.6
2016-07-01	77.9	2.8
2016-08-01	77.8	2.5
2016-09-01	78	2.6
2016-10-01	78.2	2.7
2016-11-01	78.1	2.6
2016-12-01	78.1	2.7
2017-01-01	78.2	2.4
2017-02-01	78.4	2.7
2017-03-01	78.5	2.6
2017-04-01	78.6	2.5
2017-05-01	78.4	2.5
2017-06-01	78.6	2.5
2017-07-01	78.6	2.5
2017-08-01	78.4	2.6
2017-09-01	78.9	2.8
2017-10-01	78.9	2.3
2017-11-01	79	2.5
2017-12-01	79.1	2.7
2018-01-01	79	2.9

Chart A1.13

Chart A1.13a

The data from chart A1.13a cannot be released due to legal, licensing, or copryright reasons.

Chart A1.13b

Euro Area Output Gaps, 2017
per cent of potential GDP
Germany	Euro Area	Spain	Italy	France
0.8	-0.5	-0.7	-1.6	-1.8

Chart A1.14

Emerging Economies Growth Outlook
	per cent
2012	5.4
2013	5.1
2014	4.7
2015	4.3
2016	4.4
2017	4.7
2018	4.9
2019	5.0

Projected Growth in Select Emerging Economies
per cent
	China	India	Mexico	Brazil	Russia
2017	6.8	6.7	2.0	1.1	1.8
2018-2019 average	6.5	7.6	2.7	2.0	1.6

Chart A1.15

Federal Debt-to-GDP Ratio
	per cent
1980	29.2
1981	29.3
1982	35.3
1983	37.5
1984	42.2
1985	45.7
1986	49.1
1987	50.1
1988	50.4
1989	51.4
1990	54.5
1991	58.6
1992	62.7
1993	65.5
1994	66.4
1995	66.8
1996	65.7
1997	61.9
1998	59.1
1999	53.7
2000	47.2
2001	44.9
2002	42.5
2003	39.7
2004	37.2
2005	34
2006	31.3
2007	29.1
2008	28.1
2009	33.1
2010	33.1
2011	33
2012	33.4
2013	32.2
2014	30.9
2015	31
2016	31
2017	30.4
2018	30.1
2019	29.8
2020	29.4
2021	28.9
2022	28.4

IMF Forecast for G7 General Government Net Debt-to-GDP Ratios, 2017
	per cent
Canada	24.6
Germany	45.8
United Kingdom	80.5
United States	82.5
France	88.5
Japan	120.9
Italy	121.2
G7 average	83.7

Chart A1.16

Budgetary Balance
	Budget 2017 (left scale) $ billions	Budget 2018 (left scale) $ billions	Budgetary balance as a share of GDP (right scale) per cent of GDP
2017-2018	-28.5	-19.4	-0.9
2018-2019	-27.4	-18.1	-0.8
2019-2020	-23.4	-17.5	-0.8
2020-2021	-21.7	-16.9	-0.7
2021-2022	-18.8	-13.8	-0.6
2022-2023		-12.3	-0.5

Chart A1.17

Federal Budgetary Balance
$ billions
	2016-2017	2017-2018	2018-2019	2019-2020	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023
Budget 2018 survey	-17.8	-19.4	-15.1	-14.5	-13.9	-10.8	-9.3
Budget 2018 survey (top four)	-17.8	-19.4	-14.7	-12.0	-10.3	-5.6	-3.0
Budget 2018 survey (bottom four)	-17.8	-19.5	-15.8	-18.7	-18.6	-16.0	-15.2

Federal Debt-to-GDP Ratio
per cent of GDP
	2016-2017	2017-2018	2018-2019	2019-2020	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023
Budget 2018 survey	31.0	30.4	29.9	29.5	29.0	28.4	27.8
Budget 2018 survey (top four)	31.0	30.4	29.9	29.2	28.5	27.6	26.6
Budget 2018 survey (bottom four)	31.0	30.4	30.0	30.1	29.8	29.5	29.0