Annex 2: Details of Economic and Fiscal Projections

Contents

Budget 2019 economic and fiscal projections are detailed in this annex in the following sections:

  1. Private Sector Economic Projections
  2. Changes to the Fiscal Outlook since the 2018 Fall Economic Statement
    • 2.1 Economic and Fiscal Developments since the 2018 Fall Economic Statement
  3. Fiscal Projections
    • 3.1 Summary Statement of Transactions
    • 3.2 Outlook for Budgetary Revenues
    • 3.3 Outlook for Program Expenses
    • 3.4 Financial Source/Requirement
  4. Supplementary Information
    • 4.1 Policy Actions Announced since the 2018 Fall Economic Statement
    • 4.2 Other Budget 2019 Measures (Not Included in Previous Chapters)
    • 4.3 Policy Actions and Budget 2019 Investments by Department (Estimates Basis)
    • 4.4 Reconciliation of Budget 2019 Expenses with 2018–19 Main Estimates and 2019–20 Planned Estimates
    • 4.5 Sensitivity of Fiscal Projections to Economic Shocks

1. Private Sector Economic Projections

The average of private sector forecasts has been used as the basis for fiscal planning since 1994 and introduces an element of independence into the Government’s economic and fiscal forecast.  

The economic forecast presented in this section is based on a survey conducted in February 2019. The February 2019 survey includes the views of 14 private sector economists:

  1. BMO Capital Markets,
  2. Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec,
  3. Canadian Federation of Independent Business,
  4. CIBC World Markets,
  5. The Conference Board of Canada,
  6. Desjardins,
  7. IHS Markit,
  8. Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc.,
  9. Laurentian Bank Securities,
  10. National Bank Financial Markets,
  11. Royal Bank of Canada,
  12. Scotiabank,
  13. TD Bank Financial Group, and
  14. the University of Toronto (Policy and Economic Analysis Program).
Table A2.1
Average Private Sector Forecasts
per cent, unless otherwise indicated

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018–
2023  
Real GDP growth1






  Budget 2018 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.8
  2018 Fall Economic Statement 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.8
  Budget 2019 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.8
GDP inflation1






  Budget 2018 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9
  2018 Fall Economic Statement 2.0 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
  Budget 2019 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9
Nominal GDP growth1






  Budget 2018 4.1 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.8
  2018 Fall Economic Statement 3.9 4.0 3.3 3.7 4.0 3.9 3.8
  Budget 2019 3.8 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.7
Nominal GDP level1 (billions of dollars)






  Budget 2018 2,229 2,307 2,395 2,482 2,576
  2018 Fall Economic Statement 2,226 2,314 2,391 2,479 2,578 2,679
  Budget 2019 2,223 2,298 2,379 2,467 2,564 2,667
  Difference between Budget 2018 and Budget 2019 -6 -9 -16 -15 -12
  Difference between 2018 Fall Economic Statement and Budget 2019 -3 -16 -12 -13 -14 -13 -12
3-month treasury bill rate






  Budget 2018 1.4 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.5
  2018 Fall Economic Statement 1.4 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.2
  Budget 2019 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.1
10-year government bond rate






  Budget 2018 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.3
  2018 Fall Economic Statement 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.0
  Budget 2019 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.3 2.8
Exchange rate (US cents/C$)





  Budget 2018 79.0 79.6 80.3 80.6 81.2
  2018 Fall Economic Statement 77.6 78.4 78.7 79.5 80.2 81.1 79.2
  Budget 2019 77.2 76.3 77.2 77.7 78.2 79.9 77.8
Unemployment rate






  Budget 2018 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.0
  2018 Fall Economic Statement 5.9 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.0
  Budget 2019 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9
Consumer Price Index inflation






  Budget 2018 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0
  2018 Fall Economic Statement 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0
  Budget 2019 2.3 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0
U.S. real GDP growth






  Budget 2018 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9
  2018 Fall Economic Statement 2.8 2.5 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.1
  Budget 2019 2.9 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.1
WTI crude oil price ($US per barrel)






  Budget 2018 56 57 57 59 62
  2018 Fall Economic Statement 67 68 65 65 68 71 67
  Budget 2019 66 59 60 61 63 65 62
1 Figures have been restated to reflect the historical revisions to the Canadian System of National Accounts, released on March 1st, 2019.
Sources: For Budget 2018, Department of Finance Canada December 2017 survey of private sector economists; for the 2018 Fall Economic Statement, September 2018 survey of private sector economists; and for Budget 2019, February 2019 survey of private sector economists.

2. Changes to the Fiscal Outlook since the 2018 Fall Economic Statement

Table A2.2
Economic and Fiscal Developments since the 2018 Fall Economic Statement (FES 2018)
and Investments Included in Budget 2019
billions of dollars

Projection

2018–
2019  
2019–
2020  
2020–
2021  
2021–
2022  
2022–
2023  
2023–
2024  
FES 2018 budgetary balance1 -18.1 -19.6 -18.1 -15.1 -12.6 -11.4
Adjustment for risk from FES 2018 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
FES 2018 budgetary balance (without risk adjustment) -15.1 -16.6 -15.1 -12.1 -9.6 -8.4
Economic and fiscal developments since FES 2018 5.9 4.8 4.7 3.7 4.1 4.6
Revised budgetary balance before policy actions and investments -9.3 -11.9 -10.4 -8.4 -5.5 -3.9
  Policy actions since FES 20182 -1.4 -1.0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.2 -0.2
  Investments in Budget 2019





    Investing in the Middle Class 0.0 -0.6 -1.3 -1.8 -2.3 -2.4
    Building a Better Canada -3.2 -0.3 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4
    Advancing Reconciliation -0.9 -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 -0.6 -0.6
    Delivering Real Change -0.1 -1.7 -1.6 -0.8 -0.5 -0.6
    Other Budget 2019 Investments3 0.0 -0.7 -0.9 1.6 0.6 1.2
  Total investments in Budget 2019 -4.2 -4.0 -5.7 -2.7 -3.4 -2.8
Total policy actions and investments since FES 2018 -5.6 -5.0 -6.3 -3.3 -3.6 -2.9
Budgetary balance -14.9 -16.8 -16.7 -11.8 -9.1 -6.8
Adjustment for risk
-3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0
Final budgetary balance (with risk adjustment) -14.9 -19.8 -19.7 -14.8 -12.1 -9.8
Federal debt (per cent of GDP) 30.8 30.7 30.5 30.0 29.3 28.6
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
1 A negative number implies a deterioration in the budgetary balance (lower revenues or higher spending). A positive number implies an improvement in the budgetary balance (higher revenues or lower spending).
2 Table A2.8 provides a detailed list of policy actions since FES 2018.
3 Table A2.9 provides a detailed list of other Budget 2019 investments.

2.1 Economic and Fiscal Developments since the 2018 Fall Economic Statement

Table A2.3
Economic and Fiscal Developments since the 2018 Fall Economic Statement
billions of dollars

Projection

2018–
2019 
2019–
2020  
2020–
2021  
2021–
2022  
2022–
2023  
2023–
2024  
Economic and fiscal developments by component1:
Change in budgetary revenues





  (1.1) Income taxes 4.2 1.7 2.0 1.2 1.2 1.4
  (1.2) Excise taxes/duties 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
  (1.3) Fuel charge proceeds 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
  (1.4) Employment Insurance premiums -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8
  (1.5) Other revenues2 0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0
(1) Total budgetary revenues 5.7 2.3 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.8
Change in program expenses





  (2.1) Major transfers to persons 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.7
  (2.2) Major transfers to other levels of government -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
  (2.3) Direct program expenses2 -1.5 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 0.2 1.0
(2) Total program expenses -0.1 1.2 1.1 0.5 1.2 1.6
(3) Public debt charges 0.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.2
(4) Total economic and fiscal developments since the 2018 Fall Economic Statement 5.9 4.8 4.7 3.7 4.1 4.6
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
1 A negative number implies a deterioration in the budgetary balance (lower revenues or higher spending). A positive number implies an improvement in the budgetary balance (higher revenues or lower spending).
2 For comparison purposes, the impact of a change in the Government’s accounting for the Canadian Commercial Corporation, which results in the commercial trading transactions of the Corporation no longer being presented in the Government’s financial results, has been excluded from the table. The change has offsetting impacts on revenues and expenses and no overall impact on the budgetary balance.

Relative to the 2018 Fall Economic Statement (FES 2018), budgetary revenues are projected to be higher across the forecast horizon, driven by strong fiscal results in 2018–19. This year-to-date strength is partly offset by a weaker economic outlook starting in 2019–20, as the projected level of nominal GDP is lower relative to expectations at the time of FES 2018. 

Income tax revenues have been revised up relative to FES 2018, driven by improvements across the various revenue streams. In 2018–19, upward revisions to corporate and non-resident income tax revenues account for the majority of the increase, due in large part to strength in year-to-date fiscal results. In particular, a number of large reassessments are contributing to 2018-19 corporate income tax revenue strength. Over the rest of the forecast horizon, income tax revenues are projected to be higher, with personal income tax revenues playing a larger role, driven by low unemployment and a strong labour market.

Excise taxes and duties have been revised up relative to FES 2018 due to stronger-than-expected year-to-date fiscal results. Of note, the upward revision is larger in the first two years than in the outer years due to the assumed continued application of steel and aluminum tariffs until the middle of 2019–20.

Employment Insurance (EI) premium revenues are projected to be lower across the forecast horizon than at the time of FES 2018. This is a result of slightly weaker-than-expected year-to-date results in 2018–19, and a projected decrease in the EI premium rate beginning in 2020 (not including Budget 2019 measures).

Other revenues, such as those resulting from the sales of goods and services, investments and loans, interest and penalties and Crown corporations’ net profits, are projected to be higher in 2018–19, primarily due to a better-than-expected financial performance by enterprise Crown corporations and interest and penalties revenues. Small downward revisions in future years mostly reflect lower expected returns on the Government’s interest-bearing investments, as a result of the lower interest rate outlook.

With respect to expenses, major transfers to persons have been revised downwards throughout the forecast horizon compared to FES 2018. EI benefits are lower, reflecting year-to-date results that have shown fewer-than-expected beneficiaries, largely due to a strengthening labour market. The outlook for spending on elderly benefits (including Old Age Security, Guaranteed Income Supplement and Allowance payments) has also been reduced, due to lower-than-projected year-to-date results and lower projected Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in the near term (to which these benefits are indexed).

Major transfers to other levels of government are broadly similar to FES 2018 projections. The increase in the early years is driven by revised tax point transfers under the Quebec Abatement, which are offset from 2020–21 onwards by lower forecasted Canada Health Transfer and Equalization transfer payments (reflecting a weaker outlook for nominal GDP).

Compared to FES 2018, direct program expenses are higher in 2018–19 through 2021–22, reflecting the anticipated revaluation of a number of liabilities, including higher pensions and employee future benefits expenses due to lower projected long-term interest rates, and Indigenous claims. Direct program expenses are slightly lower in the remaining years of the forecast horizon, reflecting small adjustments in departmental spending forecasts.

Public debt charges are lower across the forecast horizon compared to FES 2018. Public debt charges are expected to be lower in 2018–19, largely due to lower inflation, which results in lower CPI adjustments on Real Return Bonds. From 2019–20 onwards, the improvement over FES 2018 largely reflects lower projected interest rates, which result in lower interest expenses on market debt, pensions and employee future benefits.

3. Fiscal Projections

3.1 Summary Statement of Transactions

Table A2.4
Summary Statement of Transactions
billions of dollars


Projection

2017–
2018  
2018–
2019  
2019–
2020  
2020–
2021  
2021–
2022  
2022–
2023  
2023–
2024  
Budgetary revenues1 311.2 332.2 338.8 351.4 366.7 380.7 395.5
Program expenses1 308.3 323.5 329.4 339.7 348.3 358.4 369.1
Public debt charges 21.9 23.6 26.2 28.5 30.2 31.4 33.2
Total expenses 330.2 347.1 355.6 368.2 378.4 389.8 402.2
Adjustment for risk

-3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0
Final budgetary balance -19.0 -14.9 -19.8 -19.7 -14.8 -12.1 -9.8
Financial position






  Total liabilities1  1,151.3  1,186.3  1,219.3  1,257.5  1,293.6  1,325.5  1,353.7
  Financial assets1,2  398.4  415.1  425.6  441.5  460.0  477.7  494.6
  Net debt  752.9  771.2  793.7  816.0  833.6  847.8  859.1
  Non-financial assets1  81.6  85.6  88.3  90.9  93.7  95.9  97.4
Federal debt 671.3  685.6  705.4  725.1  739.8  751.9  761.7
Per cent of GDP3






  Budgetary revenues 14.5 14.9 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.8 14.8
  Program expenses 14.4 14.6 14.3 14.3 14.1 14.0 13.8
  Public debt charges 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
  Budgetary balance -0.9 -0.7 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4
  Federal debt 31.3 30.8 30.7 30.5 30.0 29.3 28.6
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
1 For comparison purposes with financial results presented over the projection period, 2017–18 figures have been restated to reflect the change in accounting treatment of the Canadian Commercial Corporation. 
2 The projected level of financial assets for 2018–19 includes an estimate of other comprehensive income.
3 Figures for 2017-18 have been restated to reflect the historical revisions to the Canadian System of National Accounts, released on March 1st, 2019.

3.2 Outlook for Budgetary Revenues

Table A2.5
The Revenue Outlook
billions of dollars


Projection

2017– 2018   2018– 2019   2019– 2020   2020– 2021   2021– 2022   2022– 2023   2023– 2024  
Income taxes
  Personal income tax 153.6 162.8 170.4 177.8 185.0 192.7 201.3
  Corporate income tax 47.8 52.0 46.3 47.0 49.7 50.7 52.8
  Non-resident income tax 7.8 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.9
  Total 209.3 224.3 226.5 234.5 244.4 253.2 264.0
Excise taxes/duties






  Goods and Services Tax 36.8 39.6 40.8 42.1 43.6 45.2 47.0
  Customs import duties 5.4 6.9 6.3 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.3
  Other excise taxes/duties 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.7
  Total 53.8 58.5 59.3 60.4 62.3 64.3 66.0
Total tax revenues 263.1 282.9 285.8 294.9 306.6 317.5 330.0
Fuel charge proceeds 0.0 0.0 2.3 3.5 4.6 5.7 5.7
Employment Insurance premium revenues 21.1 21.4 22.0 22.7 23.5 24.4 25.3
Other revenues
  Enterprise Crown corporations 7.7 7.4 7.3 7.9 8.7 9.3 10.0
  Other programs1 17.8 19.5 19.4 20.1 20.9 21.3 21.8
  Net foreign exchange 1.5 1.1 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.7
  Total 27.0 27.9 28.7 30.3 31.9 33.2 34.5
Total budgetary revenues 311.2 332.2 338.8 351.4 366.7 380.7 395.5
Per cent of GDP2
Total tax revenues 12.3 12.7 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4
Fuel charge proceeds 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Employment Insurance premium revenues 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9
Other revenues 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Total budgetary revenues 14.5 14.9 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.8 14.8
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
1 For comparison purposes with revenues presented over the projection period, 2017–18 figures have been restated to reflect the change in accounting treatment of the Canadian Commercial Corporation.
Figures for 2017-18 have been restated to reflect the historical revisions to the Canadian System of National Accounts, released on March 1st, 2019.

Table A2.5 sets out the Government’s projection for budgetary revenues. Overall, budgetary revenues are expected to increase by 6.7 per cent in 2018-19, reflecting robust year-to-date results and economic growth. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, revenues are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.5 per cent, in line with projected growth in nominal GDP.

Personal income tax revenues—the largest component of budgetary revenues—are projected to increase by $9.2 billion, or 6.0 per cent, to $162.8 billion in
2018–19. The strong growth in 2018–19 is driven, in particular, by high employment, reflecting a strong labour market. Over the remainder of the projection period, personal income tax revenues are forecast to increase somewhat faster than growth in nominal GDP, averaging 4.3 per cent annually, given the progressive nature of the income tax system combined with projected real income gains.

Corporate income tax revenues are projected to increase by $4.2 billion, or 8.7 per cent, to $52.0 billion in 2018–19. This increase reflects growth in year-to-date revenues from a number of sectors, including finance, manufacturing, and wholesale trade, as well as several large reassessments resulting from audits. Revenues are then expected to decline in 2019–20 by 10.9 per cent, primarily due to the temporary cost of new tax measures to promote business investment announced in the 2018 Fall Economic Statement, as well as a projected slowdown in corporate profits. Over the remainder of the projection period, corporate income tax revenues are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.3 per cent.

Non-resident income tax revenues are taxes paid by non-residents on Canadian-sourced income, notably dividend and interest income. For 2018–19, non-resident income tax revenues are projected to increase by $1.7 billion, or 21.9 per cent, based on strong year-to-date results and the associated increase in dividend and interest income. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, these revenues are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.7 per cent.

Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenues are forecast to grow by 7.8 per cent in 2018–19 based on year-to-date fiscal results. Over the remainder of the projection period, GST revenues are forecast to grow by 3.5 per cent per year, on average, in line with the outlook for taxable consumption.

Customs import duties are projected to grow 27.0 per cent in 2018–19, largely due to the temporary application of the steel and aluminum retaliatory tariffs. Over the remainder of the projection horizon, customs import duties are projected to decline at an average of 1.8 per cent, due to the assumed removal of steel and aluminum tariffs and the phase-out of tariffs under various trade agreements, including the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement.

Other excise taxes and duties (OETD) revenues are projected to increase by $0.4 billion, or 3.2 per cent, to $12.0 billion in 2018–19, largely due to the higher excise duty on tobacco products announced in Budget 2018. Over the remainder of the projection horizon, OETD revenues are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1 per cent based on historical consumption trends as well as the forecast of cannabis revenue.

Beginning in 2019–20, the revenue outlook includes an estimate for fuel charge proceeds that arise from the federal carbon pollution pricing system. The Government will return all direct proceeds from the fuel charge to the jurisdiction of origin. For jurisdictions that do not meet the Canada-wide federal standard for reducing carbon pollution—Ontario, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Saskatchewan—the bulk of these proceeds will be going to individuals and families through Climate Action Incentive payments. For jurisdictions that voluntarily adopted the federal system—Yukon and Nunavut—all direct proceeds will be returned to the governments of those jurisdictions.

EI premium revenues are projected to increase by 1.3 per cent in 2018–19 due to modest growth in insurable earnings coupled with an increase in the EI premium rate to $1.66 per $100 of insurable earnings in 2018. In 2019–20, EI premium revenues are then expected to grow 2.6 per cent, as stronger expected growth in earnings more than offsets the reduction in the EI premium rate in 2019 to $1.62 per $100 of insurable earnings (as announced by the Canada Employment Insurance Commission). Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, EI premium revenues are expected to continue on their upward trend based on projected growth in insurable earnings and a projected EI premium rate for 2020 of $1.61 per $100 of insurable earnings, after taking into account new EI measures announced in Budget 2019.

Other revenues are made up of three broad components: net income from enterprise Crown corporations; other program revenues, particularly consolidated Crown corporation revenues, returns on investments, proceeds from the sales of goods and services; and revenues in the Exchange Fund Account.

Enterprise Crown corporation revenues are projected to decrease slightly in 2018-19 and 2019-20 driven by expected declines in net income reported by Export Development Canada and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. Revenue is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 8.1 per cent over the remainder of the forecast horizon, reflecting the outlooks presented in respective enterprise Crown corporation corporate plans.

Other program revenues are affected by consolidated Crown corporation revenues, interest and exchange rate movements (which affect the Canadian-dollar value of foreign-denominated assets), and flow-through items that give rise to an offsetting expense and therefore do not impact the budgetary balance. These revenues are projected to increase by 9.4 per cent in 2018–19, largely reflecting an increase in interest and penalties revenues due to higher interest rates and large company reassessments. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, other program revenues are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.3 per cent as a result of growth in revenue from sales of goods and services and interest and penalties revenues.

Net foreign exchange revenues, which consist mainly of returns on investments held in the Exchange Fund Account, are volatile and sensitive to fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and foreign interest rates. These revenues are expected to decrease in 2018–19, due in large part to a decrease in the expected net income for the Exchange Fund Account. Over the remainder of the projection period, net foreign exchange revenues are projected to increase, largely as a result of a projected increase in interest rates.

Employment Insurance Operating Account

Employment Insurance Operating Account Projections

2017–
2018  
2018–
2019  
2019–
2020  
2020–
2021  
2021–
2022  
2022–
2023  
2023–
2024  


EI premium revenues 21.1 21.4 22.0 22.7 23.5 24.4 25.3

EI benefits1 19.7 18.8 19.9 21.5 23.0 24.0 24.8

EI administration and other expenses2 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7


20173 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (…) 2026
EI Operating Account annual balance -0.9 1.4 1.0 0.1 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9
-0.2
EI Operating Account
cumulative balance
1.6 3.0 3.9 4.0 3.3 2.3 1.4
-0.34
Projected premium rate (per $100 of insurable earnings) 1.63 1.66 1.62 1.61 1.61 1.61 1.61
1.61
1 EI benefits include regular EI benefits, sickness, maternity, parental, compassionate care, fishing and work sharing benefits, and employment benefits and support measures. These represent about 90 per cent of total EI program expenses.
2 The remaining EI costs relate mainly to administration and are included in direct program expenses.
3 Values for 2017 are actual data. Values for 2018 and future years are a projection.
4 The EI Operating Account cumulative balance does not reach exactly zero at the end of the seven-year period as projected EI rates are rounded to the nearest whole cent per $100 of insurable earnings, in accordance with the Employment Insurance Act.

The Employment Insurance Operating Account operates within the Consolidated Revenue Fund. As such, EI-related revenues and expenses that are credited and charged to the Account, respectively, in accordance with the Employment Insurance Act, are consolidated with those of the Government, and impact the budgetary balance. For consistency with the EI premium rate, which is set on a calendar-year basis with the objective of having the Account break even over time, the annual and cumulative balances of the Account are also presented on a calendar-year basis.

The EI Operating Account is expected to record annual surpluses of $1.4 billion in 2018 and $1.0 billion in 2019, and to roughly break even in 2020. The Account is then projected to record annual deficits across the remainder of the horizon. For fiscal planning purposes, an EI premium rate of $1.61 has been applied from 2020 onwards (a one-cent decrease from the 2019 premium rate) such that the EI Operating Account achieves cumulative balance by 2026.

3.3 Outlook for Program Expenses

Table A2.6
The Expense Outlook
billions of dollars


Projection

2017– 2018   2018– 2019   2019– 2020   2020– 2021   2021– 2022   2022– 2023   2023– 2024  
Major transfers to persons






  Elderly benefits 50.6 53.3 56.2 59.7 63.3 66.9 70.6
  Employment Insurance benefits1 19.7 18.8 19.9 21.5 23.0 24.0 24.8
  Canada Child Benefit2 23.4 23.9 24.3 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.1
  Total 93.8 96.0 100.4 105.8 111.4 116.4 121.5
Major transfers to other levels of government






  Canada Health Transfer 37.1 38.6 40.4 41.8 43.3 44.9 46.6
  Canada Social Transfer 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.4
  Equalization 18.3 19.0 19.8 20.5 21.3 22.1 22.9
  Territorial Formula Financing 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6
  Gas Tax Fund3 2.1 4.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4
  Home care and mental health 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.2
  Other fiscal arrangements4 -4.7 -4.7 -5.1 -5.3 -5.5 -5.8 -6.0
  Total 70.5 76.0 76.9 79.6 82.6 85.0 88.1
Direct program expenses






  Fuel charge proceeds returned5 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.8 4.9 5.7 5.7
  Other transfer payments 47.1 54.1 52.8 55.0 54.5 55.1 56.4
  Operating expenses6,7 96.8 96.7 96.7 95.4 95.0 96.2 97.3
  Total 144.0 151.5 152.1 154.2 154.3 156.9 159.4
Total program expenses 308.3 323.5 329.4 339.7 348.3 358.4 369.1
Per cent of GDP


  Major transfers to persons 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6
  Major transfers to other levels of government 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
  Direct program expenses 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.1 6.0
Total program expenses 14.4 14.6 14.3 14.3 14.1 14.0 13.8
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
1 EI benefits include regular EI benefits, sickness, maternity, parental, compassionate care, fishing and work-sharing benefits, and employment benefits and support measures. These represent about 90 per cent of total EI program expenses. The remaining EI costs relate mainly to administration and are part of operating expenses.
2 Includes retroactive payments for previous children’s benefits (Canada Child Tax Benefit and Universal Child Care Benefit) that existed prior to the introduction of the Canada Child Benefit in Budget 2016.
3
The Gas Tax Fund is a component of the Community Improvement Fund.
4 Other fiscal arrangements include the Youth Allowances Recovery; Alternative Payments for Standing Programs, which represent a recovery from Quebec of a tax point transfer; statutory subsidies; payments under the 2005 Offshore Arrangements; and established terms for repayable floor loans.
5 This will be included as a transfer payment in the Public Accounts of Canada.
6 This includes capital amortization expenses.
7
For comparison purposes with expenses presented over the projection period, 2017–18 figures have been restated to reflect the change in accounting treatment of the Canadian Commercial Corporation.

Table A2.6 provides an overview of the projections for program expenses, on an accrual basis, by major component. A more detailed outlook for 2018–19 and 2019–20 can be found in Tables A2.13 and A2.14, which provide a full estimates-budget reconciliation. Program expenses consist of major transfers to persons, major transfers to other levels of government and direct program expenses.

Major transfers to persons are projected to increase from $96.0 billion in 2018–19 to $121.5 billion in 2023–24. Major transfers to persons consist of elderly, EI and children’s benefits.

Elderly benefits, which are comprised of Old Age Security, Guaranteed Income Supplement and Allowance payments to qualifying seniors, are projected to grow from $53.3 billion in 2018–19 to $70.6 billion in 2023–24, or approximately 5.8 per cent per year. The expected increase in elderly benefits is due to projected consumer price inflation, to which benefits are fully indexed, and a projected increase in the population of seniors.

EI benefits are projected to decrease by 4.7 per cent to $18.8 billion in 2018-19, driven by a falling unemployment rate. Over the remainder of the horizon, EI benefits are projected to grow at an average of 5.7 per cent annually, reflecting expected gains in average weekly benefits and modest increases in the number of EI beneficiaries as the unemployment rate is projected to stabilize at around 6.0 per cent after 2019, based on the outlook provided by private sector forecasters.

Canada Child Benefits (CCB) are projected to rise from $23.9 billion in 2018-19 to $26.1 billion in 2023–24, or approximately 1.7 per cent annually, largely reflecting the full indexation of the CCB to consumer price inflation.

Major transfers to other levels of government, which include the Canada Health Transfer (CHT), the Canada Social Transfer (CST), Equalization, Territorial Formula Financing and the Gas Tax Fund, among others, are expected to increase over the forecast horizon, from $76.0 billion in 2018–19 to $88.1 billion in 2023–24.

The CHT is projected to grow from $38.6 billion in 2018–19 to $46.6 billion in 2023-24. The CHT grows in line with a three-year moving average of nominal GDP growth, with funding guaranteed to increase by at least 3.0 per cent per year. The CST is legislated to grow at 3.0 per cent per year. Gas Tax Fund commitments are expected to increase to $4.3 billion in 2018-19 due to a one-time transfer of $2.2 billion proposed in this budget.  In 2019-20 and beyond, base Gas Tax Fund commitments are indexed at 2.0 per cent per year, with increases applied in $100 million increments. Announced in Budget 2017, home care and mental health transfers in support of provincial and territorial home care and mental health initiatives will grow from $0.9 billion in 2018–19 to $1.2 billion in 2023–24.

Direct program expenses are projected to rise to $151.5 billion in 2018–19 and further to $159.4 billion by 2023–24. Direct program expenses include transfer payments administered by departments and operating expenses.

The projected increase in direct program expenses is driven, in large part, by the introduction of the federal carbon pollution pricing system and the associated return of direct fuel charge proceeds, which are expected to increase from $0.6 billion in 2018–19 to $5.7 billion in 2023–24. There is also a projected increase in other transfer payments administered by departments over the forecast horizon, including transfers to provincial, municipal and Indigenous governments and post-secondary institutions for investments in infrastructure. Other transfer payments are projected to increase from $54.1 billion in 2018–19 to $56.4 billion in 2023–24.

Operating expenses reflect the cost of doing business for more than 100 government departments, agencies and Crown corporations, and are projected to reach $96.7 billion in 2018–19. Operating expenses are projected to decrease to $95.0 billion in 2021–22, and then grow to $97.3 billion in 2023–24. The growth in operating expenses is composed of average annual growth of about 3 per cent in departmental expenses, which is offset by falling expenses related to pensions and employee future benefits, reflecting the projected rise in long-term interest rates.

3.4 Financial Source/Requirement

The budgetary balance is presented on a full accrual basis of accounting, recording government revenues and expenses when they are earned or incurred, regardless of when the cash is received or paid.

In contrast, the financial source/requirement measures the difference between cash coming in to the Government and cash going out. This measure is affected not only by the budgetary balance, but also by the Government’s non-budgetary transactions. These include changes in federal employee pension liabilities; changes in non-financial assets; investing activities through loans, investments and advances; and changes in other financial assets and liabilities, including foreign exchange activities.

Table A2.7
The Budgetary Balance, Non-Budgetary Transactions and Financial Source/Requirement
billions of dollars


Projection

2017–
2018  
2018–
2019  
2019–
2020  
2020–
2021  
2021–
2022  
2022–
2023  
2023–
2024   
Budgetary balance -19.0 -14.9 -19.8 -19.7 -14.8 -12.1 -9.8
Non-budgetary transactions






  Pensions and other accounts 10.4 7.5 6.3 2.9 0.6 -1.2 -1.6
  Non-financial assets1 -3.9 -4.0 -2.6 -2.6 -2.8 -2.1 -1.5
  Loans, investments and advances
    Enterprise Crown corporations -2.1 -5.0 -7.0 -6.0 -7.7 -7.2 -5.8
    Other -1.0 -5.4 -0.6 -2.3 -2.2 -2.2 -2.0
    Total -3.1 -10.4 -7.6 -8.3 -9.9 -9.4 -7.8
  Other transactions






    Accounts payable, receivable, accruals and allowances1 4.3 7.6 -7.1 -6.0 -5.8 -3.8 -4.6
    Foreign exchange activities 1.9 1.5 -1.0 -3.6 -3.9 -4.0 -3.9
    Total 6.1 9.1 -8.1 -9.6 -9.7 -7.8 -8.6
Total 9.5 2.3 -12.1 -17.7 -21.8 -20.5 -19.5
Financial source/requirement -9.4 -12.6 -31.9 -37.3 -36.6 -32.5 -29.3
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
1 For comparison purposes with financial results presented over the projection period, 2017–18 figures have been restated to reflect the change in accounting treatment of the Canadian Commercial Corporation.

As shown in Table A2.7, a financial requirement is projected over the entire forecast period. The projected financial requirements for 2018–19 to 2023–24 largely reflect requirements associated with the budgetary balance, increases in retained earnings of enterprise Crown corporations, and growth in other assets, including financing of the Exchange Fund Account.

A financial source is projected for pensions and other accounts for 2018–19 to 2021–22. Pensions and other accounts include the activities of the Government of Canada’s employee pension plans and those of federally appointed judges and Members of Parliament, as well as a variety of other employee future benefit plans, such as health care and dental plans, and disability and other benefits for veterans and others. The financial source for pensions and other accounts largely reflects adjustments for pension and benefit expenses not funded in the period.

Financial requirements for non-financial assets mainly reflect the difference between cash outlays for the acquisition of new tangible capital assets and the amortization of capital assets included in the budgetary balance. They also include disposals of tangible capital assets and changes in inventories and prepaid expenses. A net cash requirement of $2.6 billion is estimated for 2019–20.

Loans, investments and advances include the Government’s investments in enterprise Crown corporations, such as Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Export Development Canada, the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC) and Farm Credit Canada (FCC). They also include loans, investments and advances to national and provincial governments and international organizations, and for government programs. The requirements for enterprise Crown corporations projected from 2018–19 to 2023–24 reflect retained earnings of enterprise Crown corporations as well as the Government’s decision in Budget 2007 to meet all the borrowing needs of CMHC, BDC and FCC through its own domestic debt issuance. In general, loans, investments and advances are expected to generate additional revenues for the Government in the form of interest or additional net profits of enterprise Crown corporations, which partly offset debt charges associated with these borrowing requirements. These revenues are reflected in projections of the budgetary balance.

Other transactions include the payment of tax refunds and other accounts payable, the collection of taxes and other accounts receivable, the conversion of other accrual adjustments included in the budgetary balance into cash, as well as foreign exchange activities. Projected cash requirements associated with other transactions mainly reflect forecast increases in the Government’s official international reserves held in the Exchange Fund Account, as per the prudential liquidity plan, as well as projected growth in accounts receivable, in line with historical trends.

4. Supplementary Information

4.1 Policy Actions Announced since the 2018 Fall Economic Statement

Table A2.8
Policy Actions Announced since the 2018 Fall Economic Statement 1
millions of dollars
2018– 2019   2019– 2020   2020–
2021  
2021– 2022   2022– 2023   2023– 2024   Total
Government Operations, Fairness and Openness 45 177 100 83 83 83 571
Real Property Price and Volume Protection 1 64 64 64 64 64 319
Funding for Public Services and Procurement Canada to support price and volume fluctuations related to real property assets.
Expediting Access to Pardons for Simple Cannabis Possession Convictions 0 2 0 0 0 0 2
Funding provided to the Parole Board of Canada and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police to support legislation to expedite access to pardons for Canadians previously convicted of simple possession of cannabis.
Canada Summer Jobs 2019-20 4 62 0 0 0 0 66
​Funding provided to
Employment and Social Development Canada
to continue the Government ’s commitment to double Canada Summer Job placements in summer 2019-20.
Digital Democracy Project 1 7 0 0 0 0 8
​Funding provided to
Canadian Heritage
for measures to support citizen digital literacy ahead of the 2019 General Election. This initiative will aim to equip Canadians with knowledge of deceptive practices and the tools to navigate the internet and better understand information consumption online more generally.
Establishing Two New Departments: Indigenous Services Canada and Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada 40 41 36 19 19 19 175
Funding provided to support the stand-up of the departments of Indigenous Services Canada and Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada.
Veterans Affairs Canada Adjustments for Non-discretionary Cost Fluctuations* - - - - - - -
Funding adjustments for Veterans Affairs Canada to reflect non-discretionary costs increases or savings based on take-up for benefits.
Royal Canadian Mounted Police Disability Pension Program Adjustments* - - - - - - -
Funding adjustments for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) to reflect non-discretionary cost increases for the RCMP disability pension program adjustments.
Improving the Safety of LGBTQ2+ Communities 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Funding is provided to Public Safety Canada to support the work of Pride Toronto, particularly as it relates to developing a better understanding of LGBTQ2+ victimization (including hate crimes) and contributing to the implementation of education and prevention tools.
Funding is also provided to Canadian Heritage to support Pride Toronto’s efforts to raise awareness among Canadians about the 50th anniversary of the decriminalization of homosexuality in Canada.
Growth, Innovation, Infrastructure and the Environment 29 259 270 326 140 97 1,122
Canada Reaches for the Moon and Beyond 0 10 48 67 55 30 209
Funding provided to the Canadian Space Agency to develop and contribute a smart robotic system – including a third generation artificial intelligence-enabled Canadarm – that will repair and maintain the NASA-led Lunar Gateway, a project that will see humans return to the Moon and set the stage for further exploration to Mars. This investment includes support for a new Lunar Exploration Accelerator Program to help small and medium-sized businesses in Canada develop new technologies to be used and tested in lunar orbit and on the Moon’s surface.
Department of Finance Support for Government Priorities 1 3 3 3 3 3 16
Funding provided to the Department of Finance to address pressures stemming from an increasing workload that the Department has undertaken in meeting Government priorities.
Deconstruction of Champlain Bridge 15 86 156 170 0 0 426
Funding announced in February 2019 for Jacques Cartier and Champlain Bridges Incorporated to deconstruct the Champlain Bridge following the entrance in service of the new bridge – the Samuel de Champlain Bridge.
Support for Provincial Infrastructure Priorities 6 42 43 43 47 27 208
  Less: Year-over-year Reallocation of Funding -5 -18 -12 16 4 5 -11
Funding provided to Infrastructure Canada to support provincial infrastructure priorities.
Reallocating Funding for the Icefields Trail Project 0 0 0 0 -4 -4 -7
In January 2019, the Minister of Environment and Climate Change announced that the Parks Canada Agency will not be proceeding with the Icefields Trail project in Jasper National Park. The remaining funding has been reallocated towards other priorities, including addressing wildfire damage in Waterton Lakes National Park and undertaking environmental activities at the Sable Island National Park Reserve. The remaining funding for the project has been returned to the fiscal framework.
Operating Funding for Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority 0 29 29 28 35 36 157
Funding provided for the Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority to manage the Gordie Howe International Bridge project. This will ensure the corporation has the required resources for project delivery during the construction period.
Restoring Rail Service to Churchill, Manitoba 10 0 0 0 0 0 10
Financing provided by Export Development Canada via the Canada Account for the acquisition, repairs and operation required by the Hudson Bay Railway Company, the Hudson Bay Port Company, and the Churchill Marine Tank Farm.
Response to Intercity Bus Service Disruptions in Western Canada 3 8 5 0 0 0 15
Funding provided to Western Economic Diversification Canada and Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada to support communities affected by the cancellation of Greyhound Canada's bus service in Western Canada. This will allow for service to affected communities to continue where no other service provider has emerged.
Supporting Small and Medium-Sized Businesses that Produce and Use Steel and Aluminum 0 100 0 0 0 0 100
​Funding provided to the
regional development agencies to support small and medium-sized enterprises that are either producers or downstream users of steel and aluminum. This is part of the Government's continued efforts to defend and protect the interests of Canadian workers and businesses facing U.S. Section 232 tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum exports.
Labour Markets, Health, Safety and Economic Prosperity of Canadians 113 24 0 0 0 0 137
Trans Mountain Pipeline Consultations and National Energy Board Reconsideration 25 29 0 0 0 0 55
  Less: NEB Cost  Recovery -8 -1 0 0 0 0 -9
  Less: Funds Sourced from Existing Departmental Resources -5 -5 0 0 0 0 -10
Funding provided to Natural Resources Canada, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Transport Canada, Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada, Indigenous Services Canada, and the National Energy Board (NEB) to re-initiate consultations on the proposed Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project and to support NEB reconsideration of the project.  Funding provided to the NEB will be fully cost-recovered from industry.
Emergency Management Assistance Program 102 0 0 0 0 0 102
Funding provided to Indigenous Services Canada to support the Emergency Management Assistance Program with the costs of response and recovery activities on reserve following an emergency event.
Trade, International Relations and Security 24 58 36 20 19 19 176
Expo 2020 12 9 14 4 0 0 40
  Less: Year-over-year Reallocation of Funding -12 12 3 -3 0 0 0
Funding provided to Global Affairs Canada for Canada's participation in World Expo 2020, to be hosted in Dubai. This will be an opportunity to showcase Canada as a destination for trade, investment, tourism and culture, to a large international audience.
Global Affairs Canada Adjustments for Non-Discretionary Cost Fluctuations 24 37 19 19 19 19 136
Funding provided to Global Affairs Canada for non-discretionary cost increases affecting missions abroad, such as changes in exchange rates and inflation. This will allow the Government to maintain its high standards for the delivery of overseas operations.
(Net) fiscal impact of non-announced measures 1,197 450 165 172 -25 -27 1,932
The net fiscal impact of measures that are not announced is presented at the aggregate level, and would include provisions for anticipated Cabinet decisions not yet made and funding decisions related to national security, commercial sensitivity, collective bargaining and litigation issues.
Grand Total 1,409 968 571 602 216 171 3,937
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

The Government’s spending plans are generally laid out in the annual budget. Due to operational reasons, some funding decisions may be required between budgets. All such “off-cycle” funding decisions taken since the 2018 Fall Economic Statement that are not discussed in the previous chapters are detailed in this table.

*Public Sector accounting rules require that the present value of all increased future payments to eligible recipients be recognized up-front when changes are made to benefit plans as well as on an annual basis based on actuarial forecasts. As such, funding adjustments on an accrual basis have already been accounted for. The actual cost of adjustments for approved benefits for all eligible recipients is reflected in the cash table (see Table A2.10)

4.2 Other Budget 2019 Measures (Not Included in Previous Chapters)

Table A2.9
Other Budget 2019 Measures
millions of dollars
2018–
2019  
2019–
2020  
2020–
2021  
2021–
2022  
2022–
2023  
2023–
2024  
Total
Government Operations, Fairness and Openness 0 453 237 244 239 275 1,448
Better Digital Services for Canadians 0 0 12 12 0 0 24
Funding to extend the mandate of the Canadian Digital Service, which works with federal organizations to design, prototype and build better digital services for Canadians.
Insuring Income Replacement Benefits for Medically Released Members of the Forces 0 182 182 182 182 182 910
Funding to cover anticipated costs under the Service Income Security Insurance Plan and Long-term Disability
Federal Public Service Dental Plan Amendments 0 11 14 15 15 16 71
To implement plan amendments as a result of an arbitral decision on negotiations for the Public Service Dental Care Plan
Maintaining Service Levels of the Controlled Goods Program 0 4 4 4 0 0 12
​​Funding provided to Public Services and Procurement Canada to maintain the Controlled Goods Program, which oversees the examination, possession and transfer of controlled goods (primarily defence weaponry) within Canada.
Industrial Security Systems Transformation Project 0 2 1 1 6 6 16
Funding provided to Public Services and Procurement Canada to upgrade the current aging information technology systems  that support the Contract Security and the Controlled Goods Programs with a single unified solution that will provide industry with a self-service electronic interface with the federal government.
Cost and Profit Assurance Program 0 3 3 3 0 0 9
Funding provided to Public Services and Procurement Canada to provide clarity to businesses (primarily to those with defence contracts) and to ensure that procurement continues to be fair and transparent to both Canadian businesses and taxpayers.
Predictable Capital Funding 0 3 11 20 45 80 158
Funding provided to Public Services and Procurement Canada to improve the management of its portfolio of assets.  Proposed projects include the rehabilitation of the Alaska Highway, and the replacement of the breaker transformation distribution system at the Sinclair Center in Vancouver.
Real Property Repairs and Maintenance 0 275 0 0 0 0 275
Funding provided to Public Services and Procurement Canada’s Federal Accommodation Program to maintain current office accommodation and related real property service levels to federal departments and agencies.
Supporting the Canadian Human Rights Commission and Access to Justice 0 1 1 1 1 1 4
Funding proposed for the Canadian Human Rights Commission to implement a modern and streamlined case management system. The new system will better support the operational needs of the Commission, as well as access to justice for Canadians.
Supporting the Delivery of Justice through the Courts Administration Service 0 2 2 2 5 3 13
Funding proposed for the Courts Administration Service to increase capacity to translate Federal Court decisions and to relocate the federal courthouse in Montreal.
Protecting the Privacy of Canadians 0 5 5 4 4 4 22
Funding proposed for the Office of the Privacy Commissioner to enhance the Office's capacity, including its ability to engage with Canadian individuals and businesses, address complaints and respond to privacy issues as they occur.
Supporting the Public Prosecution Service of Canada 0 4 21 21 21 21 89
Funding proposed for the Public Prosecution Service of Canada to support the continued fulfillment of its responsibilities to carry out the prosecution of criminal offences under federal law.
Support for Access to Information 0 3 0 0 0 0 3
Funding proposed for the Office of the Information Commissioner to enable it to continue resolving new and existing complaints regarding access to information requests. 
Improving Labour Standards in CPTPP Partner Countries 0 1 1 1 1 1 3
  Less: Funds Sourced from Existing Departmental Resources 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3
Funding proposed for Employment and Social Development Canada to promote, monitor and enforce labour standards in CPTPP partner countries. To be sourced from existing departmental reference levels. ​
Ensuring Income Security Benefits are Fair and Efficient 0 32 36 35 15 15 133
  Less: Foregone Revenues 0 13 38 39 41 42 173
  Projected Savings 0 -97 -99 -101 -101 -101 -499
Funding proposed to Employment and Social Development Canada to support enhanced oversight and assessment of benefit entitlements and detect fraud and abuse. As ESDC has a proven track record for successfully recovering overpayments, Budget 2019 accounts for the expected revenue impact of approximately $500 million over five years.
Supporting Judicial Advisory Committee Members 0 1 1 1 1 1 6
Funding is proposed for the Office of the Commissioner for Federal Judicial Affairs to provide a per diem to non-judicial members of Judicial Advisory Committees. Judicial Advisory Committees help to inform federal judicial appointments, and play a key role in upholding a judicial appointment process that is fair, neutral, and conscious of the diversity of Canada.
Canadian Energy Regulator Transition   Costs 0 4 0 0 0 0 4
  Less: Costs to Be Recovered 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1
Funding proposed for the National Energy Board to support its transition to its new role as the Canadian Energy Regulator.
Fisheries and Oceans Canada – Advancing Reconciliation 0 5 5 4 4 4 23
Funding is proposed for Fisheries and Oceans Canada to support its capacity to work with Indigenous groups and advance reconciliation.
Growth, Innovation, Infrastructure and the Environment 0 459 650 152 116 64 1,442
Canada's Marine Safety Response 0 15 15 15 0 0 46
  Less: Funds Sourced from Existing Departmental Resources 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1
Funding proposed for the Canadian Coast Guard, Transport Canada and Environment and Climate Change Canada to continue to improve marine environmental response planning. This brings together federal, provincial and Indigenous partners to jointly plan for a quicker and more efficient response to marine pollution incidents. Fast, efficient responses help to ensure that if incidents happen, our environment and communities stay safe.
Ensuring Continued Access to US Markets for Canadian Meat Products 0 13 13 0 0 0 26
Funding proposed for the Canadian Food Inspection Agency to maintain its Daily Shift Inspection Presence Program. This program provides additional food safety inspection resources at all Canadian meat processing facilities to ensure continued access to the U.S. market for Canadian meat products.
Protecting Against Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in Canada 0 40 40 40 40 40 199
Funding proposed for the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Health Canada, and the Public Health Agency of Canada to maintain world class inspection programs to protect against Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in the Canadian cattle herd. These programs help ensure that Canadian cattle and beef products are safe for consumers at home and abroad, thereby protecting the health of Canadians and maintaining access to international markets for Canadian cattle and beef products.
Safe and Secure Road and Rail Transportation 0 73 72 61 57 1 264
Funding proposed for Transport Canada to continue oversight and regulation of motor vehicle safety, railway safety and transportation of dangerous goods, and to support the continuation of passenger rail services to remote communities with no alternative means of surface transportation. This will support safe transportation on Canadian roads and railways, and access to transportation services for remote communities.
Delivering Better Service for Air Travellers 0 296 871 7 0 0 1,175
  Less: Costs to be Recovered 0 0 0 0 -12 -16 -27
  Less: Funds Sourced from Existing Departmental Resources 0 0 -426 -32 -32 -32 -523
Funding is proposed for the Canadian Air Transport Security Authority (CATSA), Transport Canada and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police to ensure that air travellers and workers at airports are effectively screened. The Government also proposes to provide funding for the Canadian Transportation Agency and Transport Canada in support of transitioning CATSA to an independent, not-for-profit entity. The Government intends to introduce legislation to establish this entity.
Cleaning-up Federal Contaminated Sites 0 0 22 22 22 22 87
Funding is proposed to renew the Federal Contaminated Sites Action Plan to continue work to address contaminated sites for which the federal government has responsibility.
Implementing a Federal Carbon Offset System 0 3 4 3 3 3 15
  Less: Funds Sourced from Existing Departmental Resources 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -11
Providing compliance flexibility for participating facilities is an important feature of the federal output-based carbon pollution pricing system.  To support Canada's actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, funding is proposed for Environment and Climate Change Canada to develop the information technology infrastructure and tracking systems required for a national carbon offset credit system. 
Supporting Capital Assets in Canada's National Parks, Conservation Areas and Historic Sites 0 0 3 5 4 7 19
Funding proposed for capital projects in national parks, national marine conservation areas and national historic sites administered by the Parks Canada Agency.  The Government will also introduce amendments to the Parks Canada Agency Act to create a standard, one-year appropriation authority for the Agency to ensure that Canadians continue to enjoy Canada's natural treasures in our national parks, heritage sites, and marine conservation areas and to better manage heritage, tourism, waterway, and highway assets.
Enhancing Canada’s Global Arctic Leadership 0 6 7 7 7 7 34
​Funding proposed for Global Affairs Canada to enhance Canada’ s global Arctic leadership, by strengthening Canada’s engagement in the Arctic Council, creating the first Arctic Council-related permanent secretariat in Canada (for the Sustainable Development Working Group), increasing the participation of northerners in Arctic Council and Arctic research activities, and providing northern youth with international learning opportunities.
Increased Funding for the Regional Development Agencies 0 9 13 0 0 0 23
Funding proposed for Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency, Canada Economic Development for Quebec Regions, and Western Economic Diversification Canada that is equivalent to repayable contributions collected in 2018-19, based on current estimates. Access to funding will be based on actual repayments in 2018-19. In addition, permanent funding of $184.5 million per year ($97.8 million per year on an accrual basis), starting in 2024-25, to the Federal Development Agency of Southern Ontario to support innovation and economic growth in southern Ontario.
Preparing for a New Generation of Wireless Technology 0 7 19 27 30 35 117
Funding proposed
for Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada to continue to effectively manage wireless networks in Canada.
This will support equipment modernization and the development of innovative tools and systems to enhance ongoing efforts to minimize network interference and verify compliance with health and safety standards, including in the context of the new generation of wireless networks, referred to as 5G.
Labour Markets, Health, Safety and Economic Prosperity of Canadians 0 334 327 38 37 35 771
Supporting the Harbourfront Centre 0 0 0 7 7 7 20
Funding proposed for Canadian Heritage to
support the operations of the Harbourfront Centre in Toronto and
to help the Centre to continue to provide internationally-renowned programming in arts, culture, education and recreation.
Boosting the Capacity of the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Services 0 1 1 1 1 1 5
Funding proposed for Employment and Social Development Canada to support the hiring of additional mediators to strengthen the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service's overall advisory capacity.
Providing Health Care to Refugees and Asylum Seekers 0 125 158 0 0 0 283
Funding proposed for Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada to provide increased funding for the Interim Federal Health Program. This will promote better public health outcomes for both Canadians and those seeking asylum in Canada.
Modernizing Canada's Border Operations 0 127 134 24 23 24 332
  Less: Funds Previously Provisioned in the Fiscal Framework 0 -21 -17 -1 -2 -3 -44
Funding proposed for the Canada Border Services Agency to support effective border management and enforcement, and to modernize border operations. This funding will facilitate the safe and timely flow of transactions at the border.
Support for the Correctional Service of Canada 0 95 0 0 0 0 95
Funding proposed for the Correctional Service of Canada to support existing operations. The Correctional Service of Canada is responsible for the safe and humane custody of offenders serving sentences of two years or more and for assisting in offender rehabilitation, encouraging offenders to become law-abiding citizens when they return to the community.
Protecting the Rights and Freedoms of Canadians 0 5 6 7 8 6 32
Funding is proposed for the Canadian Security Intelligence Service to continue efforts to modernize its framework for compliance with Canadian law, Ministerial direction, and Federal Court requirements, as well as CSIS’ internal policies, in a manner that protects national security interests and respects the rights and freedoms of Canadians. 
Enhancing Indigenous Consultation and Capacity Support 0 2 2 0 0 0 3
Funding proposed for Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada to support Indigenous partners' development of, and participation in, consultation processes with the Government of Canada through Consultation Protocols.
On-Reserve Income Assistance: Case Management and Pre-Employment Support 0 0 39 0 0 0 39
Funding proposed for Indigenous Services Canada to support individuals to transition from income assistance to employment and education.
Matrimonial Real Property Implementation Support Program 0 0 3 0 0 0 3
Funding proposed for Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada to support First Nations in developing their own community-specific matrimonial real property laws, and to provide targeted training and awareness activities to law enforcement and members of the judiciary.
Improving the Health and Safety of Canadian Workers 0 1 1 1 1 1 4
Funding provided to the Canadian Centre for Occupational Health and Safety (CCOHS) in support of its Employee Benefit Plan premiums. This will allow the CCOHS to continue its important work to safeguard and improve the physical and mental health of Canada's workers. 
Trade, International Relations and Security 248 5 4 1 1 1 260
Supporting the World Bank 248 0 0 0 0 0 248
Funding to purchase Canada’s International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) shares, which will increase the World Bank's financial capacity and allow the institution to provide more financing for developing countries to promote sustainable economic growth.
Administration of New Free Trade Agreement Measures and Steel Safeguards 0 5 4 1 1 1 12
Funding proposed for Global Affairs Canada for the implementation of new trade openings and control measures under the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). These trade agreements will benefit Canadian companies, providing new trade opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as reinforcing and modernizing trade relationships across North America. Funding is also proposed for Global Affairs Canada for the administration of potential import safeguards on certain steel products. 
(Net) fiscal impact of measures discussed in Tax Measures: Supplementary Information and Strengthening and Modernizing Canada’s Financial Sector (Annex 4) - 1 4 4 4 5 18
(Net) fiscal impact of non-announced measures -267 -533 -323 -2,056 -978 -1,585 -5,742
The net fiscal impact of measures that are not announced is presented at the aggregate level, and would include provisions for anticipated Cabinet decisions not yet made and funding decisions related to national security, commercial sensitivity, collective bargaining and litigation issues.
Grand Total -18 718 898 -1,617 -580 -1,206 -1,804
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding
Table A2.10
Policy Actions since the 2018 Fall Economic Statement by Department (estimates basis)
millions of dollars (cash basis)
2018-
2019 
2019-
2020 
2020-
2021 
2021-
2022 
2022-
2023 
2023-
2024 
Total
(Cash)
Canadian Heritage 1 7 0 0 0 0 8
Digital Democracy Project 1 7 0 0 0 0 8
Improving the Safety of LGBTQ2+ Communities 0 0.3 0 0 0 0 0.3
Canadian Space Agency 0 10 61 221 265 240 797
Canada Reaches for the Moon and Beyond 0 10 61 221 265 240 797
Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada 7 8 5 0 0 0 20
Establishing Two New Departments: Indigenous Services Canada and Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada 5 5 4 0 0 0 14
Response to Intercity Bus Service Disruptions in Western Canada 2 3 1 0 0 0 5
Trans Mountain Pipeline Consultations and National Energy Board Reconsideration 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Department of Finance Canada 1 3 3 3 3 3 16
Department of Finance Support for Government Priorities 1 3 3 3 3 3 16
Employment and Social Development Canada 4 62 0 0 0 0 66
Canada Summer Jobs 2019-20 4 62 0 0 0 0 66
Fisheries and Oceans Canada 2 3 0 0 0 0 5
Trans Mountain Pipeline Consultations and National Energy Board Reconsideration 2 3 0 0 0 0 5
Global Affairs Canada 36 59 36 21 19 19 176
Expo 2020 0 22 17 2 0 0 40
Global Affairs Canada Adjustments for Non-Discretionary Fluctuations 24 37 19 19 19 19 136
Indigenous Services Canada 137 37 32 19 19 19 263
Emergency Management Assistance Program 102 0 0 0 0 0 102
Establishing Two New Departments: Indigenous Services Canada and Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada 35 36 32 19 19 19 160
Trans Mountain Pipeline Consultations and National Energy Board Reconsideration 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Infrastructure Canada 1 24 30 59 50 33 197
Support for Provincial Infrastructure Priorities 1 24 30 59 50 33 197
Regional Development Agencies (allocation to be determined) 0 100 0 0 0 0 100
Supporting Small and Medium-Sized Businesses that Produce and Use Steel and Aluminum 0 100 0 0 0 0 100
Jacques Cartier and Champlain Bridge Inc. 15 86 156 170 0 0 426
Deconstruction of the Champlain Bridge 15 86 156 170 0 0 426
National Energy Board 8 1 0 0 0 0 9
Trans Mountain Pipeline Consultations and National Energy Board Reconsideration 8 1 0 0 0 0 9
Natural Resources Canada 7 17 0 0 0 0 24
Trans Mountain Pipeline Consultations and National Energy Board Reconsideration 7 17 0 0 0 0 24
Parks Canada 0 0 -16 0 0 0 -15
Reallocating Funding for the Icefields Trail Project 0 0 -16 0 0 0 -15
Parole Board of Canada 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Expediting Access to Pardons for Simple Cannabis Possession Convictions 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Public Safety Canada 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Improving the Safety of LGBTQ2+ Communities 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Public Services and Procurement Canada 1 64 64 64 64 64 319
Supporting Price and Volume Fluctuations Related to Real Property Assets 1 64 64 64 64 64 319
Royal Canadian Mounted Police 29 93 0 0 0 0 121
Expediting Access to Pardons for Simple Cannabis Possession Convictions 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Royal Canadian Mounted Police Disability Pension Program Adjustments 29 92 0 0 0 0 120
Transport Canada 2 3 0 0 0 0 4
Trans Mountain Pipeline Consultations and National Energy Board Reconsideration 2 3 0 0 0 0 4
Veterans Affairs Canada 323 240 0 0 0 0 563
Veterans Affairs Canada Adjustments for Non-discretionary Cost Fluctuations 323 240 0 0 0 0 563
Western Economic Diversification Canada 1 5 4 0 0 0 10
Response to Intercity Bus Service Disruptions in Western Canada 1 5 4 0 0 0 10
Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority 0 29 29 28 35 36 157
Operating Funding for Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority 0 29 29 28 35 36 157
Total – Voted Budgetary Measures Since the 2018 Fall Economic Statement by Department 568 869 415 584 455 416 3,307
Other 4 -18 -12 0 0 -3 -29
Total - All Policy Actions Since the 2018 Fall Economic Statement 572 851 403 584 455 413 3,278
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding
Table A2.11
Budget 2019 Measures by Department (estimates basis)
millions of dollars (cash basis)
2018-
2019
2019-
2020
2020-
2021
2021-
2022
2022-
2023
2023-
2024
Total
(Cash)
Administrative Tribunals Support Service of Canada 0 1 1 1 1 1 4
Resolving Income Security Program Disputes More Quickly and Easily 0 1 1 1 1 1 4
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada 0 19 19 19 19 19 95
A Food Policy for Canada 0 19 19 19 19 19 95
Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency 0 27 13 9 9 9 67
A Just Transition for Coal Power Workers and Communities 0 0 9 9 9 9 36
Launching a Federal Strategy on Jobs and Tourism 0 2 4 0 0 0 6
Increased Funding for the Regional Development Agencies 0 25 0 0 0 0 25
Canada Border Services Agency 0 262 337 193 188 276 1,257
Addressing the Challenges of African Swine Fever 0 6 9 6 6 6 32
Enhancing Accountability and Oversight of the CBSA 0 1 2 3 3 3 11
Enhancing the Integrity of Canada's Borders and Asylum System 0 106 158 102 8 8 382
Helping Travellers Visit Canada 0 13 17 0 0 0 30
Modernizing Canada's Border Operations 0 135 148 76 159 247 765
Protecting People from Unscrupulous Immigration Consultants 0 2 2 2 2 2 10
Strengthening Canada's AML-ATF Regime 0 0 2 5 11 10 28
Canada Economic Development for Quebec Regions 0 3 57 0 0 0 60
Launching a Federal Strategy on Jobs and Tourism 0 3 6 0 0 0 9
Increased Funding for the Regional Development Agencies 0 0 51 0 0 0 51
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 0 33 61 110 144 159 507
Expanding the Rental Construction Financing Initiative 0 18 40 84 115 129 385
Introducing the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive 0 15 21 27 29 30 121
Canada Revenue Agency 0 61 77 77 76 75 367
Access to Charitable Tax Incentives for Not-for-Profit Journalism 0 1 3 2 2 1 9
Ensuring Proper Payments for Public Servants 0 9 0 0 0 0 9
Improving Access to the Canada Workers Benefit Throughout the Year 0 4 1 0 0 0 4
Improving Client Services at the Canada Revenue Agency 0 9 11 12 12 8 50
Improving Tax Compliance 0 29 53 53 52 54 241
Taking Action to Enhance Tax Compliance in the Real Estate Sector 0 9 10 10 10 10 50
Tax Credit for Digital News Subscriptions 0 0 1 1 1 1 3
Canadian Air Transport Security Authority 0 288 309 0 0 0 597
Delivering Better Service for Air Travellers 0 288 309 0 0 0 597
Canadian Centre for Occupational Health and Safety 0 1 1 1 1 1 4
Improving the Health and Safety of Canadian Workers 0 1 1 1 1 1 4
Canadian Food Inspection Agency 0 56 60 48 50 51 266
A Food Policy for Canada 0 3 6 5 6 5 24
Bringing Innovation to Regulations 0 3 4 5 7 8 27
Ensuring Continued Access to US Markets for Canadian Meat Products 0 13 13 0 0 0 26
Protecting Against Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in Canada 0 38 38 38 38 38 189
Canadian Heritage 0 83 110 108 109 131 541
Ensuring a Safe and Healthy Sport System 0 6 6 6 6 6 30
Expanding Support for Artists and Cultural Events 0 31 31 0 0 0 61
Inclusion of Canadians with Visual Impairments and Other Print Disabilities 0 4 5 6 4 2 23
Introducing a New Anti-Racism Strategy 0 17 15 13 0 0 45
National Day for Truth and Reconciliation 0 5 5 0 0 0 10
Protecting Democracy 0 5 5 5 5 0 19
Supporting the Harbourfront Centre 0 0 0 7 7 7 20
Preserving, Promoting and Revitalizing Indigenous Languages 0 15 44 72 87 116 334
Canadian Human Rights Commission 0 1 1 1 1 1 4
Supporting the Canadian Human Rights Commission and Access to Justice 0 1 1 1 1 1 4
Canadian Institutes of Health Research 0 6 8 11 11 11 46
Paid Parental Leave for Student Researchers 0 2 2 3 3 3 14
Supporting Graduate Students Through Research Scholarships 0 4 6 7 7 7 32
Canadian Northern Economic Development Agency 0 15 16 18 23 23 95
A Food Policy for Canada 0 3 3 3 3 3 15
Launching a Federal Strategy on Jobs and Tourism 0 2 3 0 0 0 5
Strong Arctic and Northern Communities 0 10 10 15 20 20 75
Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission 0 3 3 5 0 0 11
Protecting Canada's Critical Infrastructure from Cyber Threats 0 3 3 5 0 0 11
Canadian Security Intelligence Service 0 24 26 13 14 20 97
Enhancing the Integrity of Canada's Borders and Asylum System 0 2 4 0 0 0 6
Helping Travellers Visit Canada 0 1 2 0 0 0 3
Protecting Canada’s National Security 0 3 3 3 3 3 16
Protecting Democracy 0 0 2 3 6 12 23
Protecting the Rights and Freedoms of Canadians 0 9 7 7 5 5 33
Renewing Canada's Middle East Strategy 0 8 8 0 0 0 17
Canadian Transportation Agency 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3
Delivering Better Service for Air Travellers 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3
Civilian Review and Complaints Commission for the RCMP 0.0 0.0 2 3 4 4 14
Enhancing Accountability and Oversight of the CBSA 0.0 0.0 2 3 4 4 14
Communications Security Establishment Canada 0 18 26 26 24 24 118
Protecting Canada's Critical Infrastructure from Cyber Threats 0 9 18 22 22 22 92
Protecting Canada’s National Security 0 2 2 2 2 2 12
Protecting Democracy 0 2 1 1 0 0 4
Renewing Canada's Middle East Strategy 0 5 5 0 0 0 9
Correctional Service Canada 0 95 0 0 0 0 95
Support for the Correctional Service of Canada 0 95 0 0 0 0 95
Courts Administration Service 0 5 6 7 15 3 37
Enhancing the Integrity of Canada's Borders and Asylum System 0 3 2 0 0 0 5
Supporting the Delivery of Justice through the Courts Administration Service 0 3 4 7 15 3 33
Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada 0 934 1,546 1,520 433 419 4,853
Advancing Reconciliation by Settling Specific Claims 0 883 1,078 1,148 8 8 3,125
Better Information for Better Services 0 0 0 11 12 7 29
Enhancing Indigenous Consultation and Capacity Support 0 2 2 0 0 0 3
Honouring Missing Residential School Children 0 8 11 15 0 0 34
Indigenous Youth and Reconciliation 0 5 5 5 0 0 15
Matrimonial Real Property Implementation Support Program 0 0 3 0 0 0 3
More Connectivity = More Affordable Electricity 0 6 6 6 0 0 18
National Council for Reconciliation 0 0 127 0 0 0 127
Northern Abandoned Mine Reclamation Program 0 0 181 196 270 273 921
Supporting Indigenous Business Development 0 26 26 26 26 26 129
Supporting Indigenous Entrepreneurs Through the Indigenous Growth Fund 0 0 2 5 10 0 17
Loan Forgiveness and Reimbursement for Comprehensive Claims Negotiations 0 0 98 98 98 98 393
Strong Arctic and Northern Communities 0 5 8 11 9 8 40
Department of Finance Canada 0 1 13 1 1 1 17
Introducing a FCAC Governance Council 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Protecting Canadians’ Pensions 0 0 13 0 0 0 13
Strengthening Canada's AML-ATF Regime 0 1 1 1 1 1 4
Department of Justice Canada 0 27 34 32 13 12 118
Bringing Innovation to Regulations 0 7 8 7 5 3 30
Enhancing the Integrity of Canada's Borders and Asylum System 0 17 18 17 0 0 52
Giving Canadians Better Access to Public Legal Education and Information 0 2 2 2 2 2 8
Supporting Access to Family Justice in the Official Language of One's Choice 0 0 4 4 4 4 17
Supporting Renewed Legal Relationships With Indigenous Peoples 0 1 2 3 2 3 10
Destination Canada 0 5 0 0 0 0 5
Launching a Federal Strategy on Jobs and Tourism 0 5 0 0 0 0 5
Employment and Social Development Canada 0 333 447 387 336 347 1,851
Boosting the Capacity of the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Services 0 1 1 1 1 1 5
Empowering Seniors in their Communities 0 20 20 20 20 20 100
Enhancing Supports for Apprenticeship 0 3 13 10 10 10 46
Ensuring Income Security Benefits are Fair and Efficient 0 32 36 35 15 15 133
Establishing a Permanent Global Talent Stream 0 6 7 7 7 8 35
Expanding the Canada Service Corps 0 35 57 68 71 84 315
Expanding the Student Work Placement Program 0 76 113 148 148 148 631
Additional work-Integrated learning Opportunities 0 0 20 30 50 50 150
Improving Gender and Diversity Outcomes in Skills Programs 0 1 1 1 1 1 5
Improving the Economic Security of Low-Income Seniors 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Inclusion of Canadians with Visual Impairments and Other Print Disabilities 0 2 0 0 0 0 2
Investing in Service Canada 0 91 87 49 2 0 229
Resolving Income Security Program Disputes More Quickly and Easily 0 0 1 1 1 1 4
Supporting Black Canadian Communities 0 5 5 5 5 5 25
Supporting Indigenous Entrepreneurs Through the Indigenous Growth Fund 0 0 50 0 0 0 50
Modernizing the Youth Employment Strategy 0 30 5 5 5 5 50
Supporting Employment for Persons with Intellectual Disabilities Including Autism Spectrum Disorders 0 4 4 4 0 0 12
Supporting Indigenous Post-Secondary Education 0 3 3 3 0 0 9
Participation of Social Purpose Organizations in the Social Finance Market 0 25 25 0 0 0 50
Environment and Climate Change Canada 0 26 14 20 30 16 107
Canada's Marine Safety Response 0 3 3 3 0 0 8
Ensuring Better Disaster Management Preparation and Response 0 1 1 1 1 1 6
Implementing a Federal Carbon Offset System 0 5 1 0 0 0 6
Strong Arctic and Northern Communities 0 18 9 16 29 15 87
Federal Economic Development Agency for Southern Ontario 0 4 8 0 0 0 12
Launching a Federal Strategy on Jobs and Tourism 0 4 8 0 0 0 12
Permanent Funding ($185 million annually starting in 2024-25) - - - - - - -
Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada 0 4 5 5 4 3 20
Strengthening Canada's AML-ATF Regime 0 4 5 5 4 3 20
Fisheries and Oceans Canada 0 16 17 16 4 4 57
Canada's Marine Safety Response 0 11 11 11 0 0 34
Fisheries and Oceans Canada - Advancing Reconciliation 0 5 5 4 4 4 23
Global Affairs Canada 0 270 262 9 8 108 658
Administration of new free trade agreement measures and steel safeguards 0 11 3 0 0 0 15
Increasing Canada's International Assistance Envelope 0 0 0 0 0 100 100
Protecting Canada’s National Security 0 1 1 1 1 1 7
Protecting Democracy 0 1 1 1 0 0 2
Renewing Canada's Middle East Strategy 0 250 250 0 0 0 500
Enhancing Canada's Global Arctic Leadership 0 6 7 7 7 7 34
Health Canada 0 51 98 107 580 577 1,413
Brain Canada Foundation 0 0 20 20 0 0 40
Bringing Innovation to Regulations 0 25 26 25 14 14 103
Enhancing the Federal Response to the Opioid Crisis in Canada 0 7 11 6 4 2 31
Introducing the Canadian Drug Agency 0 5 10 10 10 0 35
Making High-Cost Drugs for Rare Diseases More Accessible 0 0 0 0 500 500 1,000
Ovarian Cancer Canada 0 1 2 2 2 2 10
Protecting Against Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in Canada 0 1 1 1 1 1 6
Supporting a Safe and Non-Discriminatory Approach to Plasma Donation 0 1 2 0 0 0 2
Terry Fox Research Institute 0 11 20 32 39 48 150
Creating a Pan-Canadian Database for Organ Donation and Transplantation 0 1 6 10 10 10 37
Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada 0 57 151 0 0 0 208
Enhancing the Integrity of Canada's Borders and Asylum System 0 57 151 0 0 0 208
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada 0 339 341 103 44 41 869
Enhancing the Integrity of Canada's Borders and Asylum System 0 160 128 95 36 33 452
Improving Immigration Client Service 0 18 25 0 0 0 43
Helping Travellers Visit Canada 0 24 21 0 0 0 46
Protecting People from Unscrupulous Immigration Consultants 0 11 9 8 8 8 45
Providing Health Care to Refugees and Asylum Seekers 0 125 158 0 0 0 283
Indigenous Services Canada 0 695 837 834 441 444 3,250
Better Information for Better Services 0 4 6 6 5 5 26
Continuing Implementation of Jordan's Principle 0 404 404 404 0 0 1,212
Core Governance Support for First Nations 0 24 24 0 0 0 48
Ensuring Better Disaster Management Preparation and Response 0 6 11 11 11 11 48
On Track to Eliminate Boil Water Advisories On-Reserve 0 67 149 164 174 185 739
Improving Assisted Living and Long Term Care 0 40 3 0 0 0 44
Improving Emergency Response On-Reserve 0 33 50 58 57 61 259
On-Reserve Income Assistance: Case Management and Pre-Employment Support 0 0 39 0 0 0 39
Safe and Accessible Spaces for Urban Indigenous Peoples 0 4 9 21 21 6 60
Supporting Indigenous Post-Secondary Education 0 79 96 116 119 121 531
Supporting Inuit Children 0 30 40 50 50 50 220
Supporting the National Inuit Suicide Prevention Strategy 0 5 5 5 5 5 25
Infrastructure Canada 0 0 63 63 63 63 250
Encouraging Innovation with the Housing Supply Challenge 0 0 63 63 63 63 250
Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada 0 93 321 381 367 173 1,335
Access to High-Speed Internet for all Canadians 0 26 162 220 216 92 717
Genome Canada 0 0 32 18 23 19 92
Giving Young Canadians Digital Skills 0 30 30 0 0 0 60
Growing Canada’s Advantage in Cyber Security 0 0 20 20 20 20 80
Let's Talk Science 0 0 5 5 0 0 10
Preparing for a New Generation of Wireless Technology 0 7 20 70 69 33 199
Protecting Canada's Critical Infrastructure from Cyber Threats 0 1 1 1 0 0 3
Protecting Canada’s National Security 0 1 1 1 1 1 5
Supporting Innovation in the Oil and Gas Sector Through Collaboration 0 10 30 30 30 0 100
Supporting Renewed Legal Relationships With Indigenous Peoples 0 3 3 3 0 0 9
Supporting the Next Generation of Entrepreneurs 0 7 8 8 8 8 38
Supporting the work of the Business/Higher Education Roundtable 0 6 6 6 0 0 17
Launching a Federal Strategy on Jobs and Tourism (FedNor) 0 2 4 0 0 0 6
National Defence 0 437 477 237 203 203 1,557
Insuring Income Replacement Benefits for Medically Released Members of the Forces 0 182 182 182 182 182 910
Protecting Canada’s National Security 0 2 2 2 2 2 12
Renewing Canada's Middle East Strategy 0 199 243 0 0 0 442
Supporting Veterans as They Transition to Post-Service Life 0 19 19 19 19 19 94
Reinforcing Canada's Support for Ukraine 0 34 32 34 0 0 100
National Energy Board 0 4 0 0 0 0 4
Canadian Energy Regulator Transition Costs 0 4 0 0 0 0 4
National Research Council Canada 0 0 39 39 41 38 158
Strengthening Canada's World Class Physics Research 0 0 39 39 41 38 158
Natural Resources Canada 0 43 126 145 143 58 514
Encouraging Canadians to Use Zero Emission Vehicles 0 10 12 35 37 36 130
Engaging Indigenous Communities in Major Resource Projects 0 13 0 0 0 0 13
Ensuring Better Disaster Management Preparation and Response 0 11 21 21 18 18 88
Helping Canada's Forest Sector Innovate and Grow 0 0 84 84 84 0 251
Improving Canadian Energy Information 0 2 3 3 3 3 15
Protecting Canada's Critical Infrastructure from Cyber Threats 0 1 1 1 0 0 3
Strong Arctic and Northern Communities 0 6 6 1 1 1 14
Office of the Commissioner for Federal Judicial Affairs Canada 0 2 2 2 2 2 12
Enhancing the Integrity of Canada's Borders and Asylum System 0 1 1 1 1 1 6
Supporting Judicial Advisory Committee Members 0 1 1 1 1 1 6
Offices of the Information and Privacy Commissioners of Canada 0 8 5 4 4 4 25
Protecting the Privacy of Canadians 0 5 5 4 4 4 22
Support for Access to Information 0 3 0 0 0 0 3
Parks Canada 0 0 143 224 0 0 368
Supporting Capital Assets in Canada's National Parks, Conservation Areas and Historic Sites 0 0 143 224 0 0 368
Privy Council Office 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Expanding the Work of the LGBTQ2+ Secretariat 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Public Health Agency of Canada 0 8 18 18 18 17 79
Introducing a National Dementia Strategy 0 3 12 12 12 12 50
Protecting Against Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in Canada 0 1 1 1 1 1 4
Supporting a Pan-Canadian Suicide Prevention Service 0 5 5 5 5 5 25
Public Prosecution Service of Canada 0 4 21 21 21 21 89
Supporting the Public Prosecution Service of Canada 0 4 21 21 21 21 89
Public Safety Canada 65 172 129 25 13 13 416
Ensuring Better Disaster Management Preparation and Response 0 158 109 4 4 4 279
Improving Emergency Medical Response in Western Canada 65 0 0 0 0 0 65
Protecting Canada's Critical Infrastructure from Cyber Threats 0 2 2 2 0 0 6
Protecting Canada’s National Security 0 2 2 2 2 2 10
Protecting Children from Sexual Exploitation Online 0 4 9 9 0 0 22
Protecting Community Gathering Places from Hate Motivated Crimes 0 2 2 2 2 2 10
Strengthening Canada's AML-ATF Regime 0 3 5 6 5 5 24
Public Services and Procurement Canada 22 1,020 666 862 816 883 4,270
Cost and Profit Assurance Program 0 3 3 3 0 0 9
Ensuring Proper Payments for Public Servants 22 352 89 90 0 0 553
Improving Crossings in Canada's Capital Region 0 6 13 21 12 8 60
Industrial Security Systems Transformation Project 0 8 15 10 2 2 37
Maintaining Service Levels of the Controlled Goods Program 0 4 4 4 0 0 12
Predictable Capital Funding 0 373 542 734 802 873 3,323
Real Property Repairs and Maintenance 0 275 0 0 0 0 275
Royal Canadian Mounted Police 0 123 144 137 137 135 675
Delivering Better Service for Air Travellers 0 3 4 5 0 0 12
Enhancing the Integrity of Canada's Borders and Asylum System 0 18 16 16 15 14 80
Protecting Canada’s National Security 0 1 1 1 1 1 6
Strengthening Canada's AML-ATF Regime 0 4 10 15 20 20 69
Support for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police 0 96 112 100 100 100 509
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada 0 6 8 11 11 11 49
Paid Parental Leave for Student Researchers 0 2 2 3 3 3 15
Supporting Graduate Students Through Research Scholarships 0 4 6 8 8 8 34
Shared Services Canada 0 2 3 4 3 3 14
Making Federal Government Workplaces More Accessible 0 2 3 4 3 3 14
Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada 0 8 10 13 13 13 56
Paid Parental Leave for Student Researchers 0 1 2 2 2 2 9
Supporting Graduate Students Through Research Scholarships 0 6 8 11 11 11 48
Statistics Canada 0 1 1 0 0 0 1
Monitoring Purchases of Canadian Real Estate 0 1 1 0 0 0 1
Transport Canada 0 162 214 238 117 100 832
Bringing Innovation to Regulations 0 10 18 18 0 0 46
Canada's Marine Safety Response 0 1 1 1 0 0 3
Delivering Better Service for Air Travellers 0 5 3 3 0 0 11
Encouraging Canadians to Use Zero Emission Vehicles 0 71 106 123 0 0 300
Protecting Canada's Critical Infrastructure from Cyber Threats 0 2 3 3 0 0 7
Safe and Secure Road and Rail Transportation 0 73 73 61 57 0 264
Strong Arctic and Northern Communities 0 0 10 30 60 100 200
Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat 0 36 29 31 19 19 134
Advancing Gender Equality 0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.5
Better Digital Services for Canadians 0 0 12 12 0 0 24
Bringing Innovation to Regulations 0 0 3 3 3 3 13
Ensuring Proper Payments for Public Servants 0 25 0 0 0 0 25
Federal Public Service Dental Plan Amendments 0 11 14 15 15 16 71
Veterans Affairs Canada 0 76 48 45 44 43 256
Supporting Veterans’ Families 0 30 30 30 30 30 150
Commemorating Canada’s Veterans 0 1 1 1 0 0 3
Juno Beach Centre 0 1 1 1 1 1 3
Recognizing Métis Veterans 0 30 0 0 0 0 30
Supporting Research on Military and Veteran Health 0 1 7 7 7 7 30
Supporting Veterans as They Transition to Post-Service Life 0 14 9 6 6 5 41
Western Economic Diversification Canada 0 54 62 54 21 21 212
A Just Transition for Coal Power Workers and Communities 0 0 21 21 21 21 84
Launching a Federal Strategy on Jobs and Tourism 0 4 7 0 0 0 11
Protecting Water and Soil in the Prairies 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Increased Funding for the Regional Development Agencies 0 16 0 0 0 0 16
Investing in a Diverse and Growing Western Economy 0 33 33 33 0 0 100
Women and Gender Equality 0 10 10 20 40 80 160
Advancing Gender Equality 0 10 10 20 40 80 160
Total – Voted Budgetary Measures by Department 87 6,030 7,448 6,259 4,682 4,682 29,188
Departmental Allocation To Be Determined 0 36 294 298 240 240 1,107
Canada's New International Education Strategy 0 22 45 66 8 8 149
Cleaning-up Federal Contaminated Sites 0 0 232 232 232 232 927
Expanding the Work of the LGBTQ2+ Secretariat 0 10 10 0 0 0 20
Launching a Federal Strategy on Jobs and Tourism 0 4 8 0 0 0 11
Other Budget 2019 measures (Estimates Basis) 224 3,937 1,405 2,424 1,734 1,393 11,116
Expanding the Rental Construction Financing Initiative 0 500 750 1,750 1,750 1,500 6,250
New Infrastructure Funding for Local Communities Through a Municipal Top-Up 0 2,200 0 0 0 0 2,200
Improving the Economic Security of Low-Income Seniors 0 0 345 466 471 476 1,758
Introducing the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive 0 250 500 500 0 0 1,250
Reducing Energy Costs Through Greater Energy Efficiency 0 1,010 0 0 0 0 1,010
Other 224 -23 -190 -292 -487 -583 -1,352
Total - All Budget 2019 Measures 311 10,003 9,147 8,980 6,655 6,315 41,411
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding

4.4 Reconciliation of Budget 2019 Expenses with 2018–19 Main Estimates and 2019–20 Planned Estimates

Under this reconciliation, the accrual expense forecast is broken out into nine building blocks. These begin with Main Estimates authorities for 2018–19 or Planned Estimates authorities for 2019–20, and also include Budget Implementation Vote (BIV) allocations-to-date in 2018–19, Budget 2019 measures, additional Estimates authorities for which Parliamentary approval may be sought through Supplementary Estimates, amounts forecasted to remain unspent or carried forward from total authorities, further spending financed by departmental revenues, spending-like programs delivered through the tax system, and remaining accrual and consolidation adjustments required to put the forecast on the same accounting basis as the Public Accounts of Canada, Volume I. These building blocks are consistent with concepts and definitions used in the Public Accounts of Canada, Volume II.

Table A2.12
Summary Reconciliation of Budget 2019 Expenses with 2018–19 Main Estimates and 2019–20 Planned Estimates
billions of dollars

2018–19 2019–20
(1) Main estimates/ Planned estimates
276.0 292.5
(2) Budget Implementation Vote allocations


  Allocations to Departments 4.8

  Drawdowns of Vote (4.8) 0.0
(3) Measures (Estimates basis)
0.1 6.0
(4) Other anticipated authorities
18.2 12.2
(5) Unspent/carried forward
(14.5) (11.3)
(6) Net expenditures
279.8 299.6
(7) Netted revenues
11.5 11.6
(8) Tax credits & repayments
28.0 31.3
(9) Accrual & consolidation adjustments
27.9 13.2
(10) Budget expense forecast
347.1 355.6
Table A2.13a
Reconciliation of Budget 2019 Expenses with the 2018–19 Main Estimates
billions of dollars

(1)  (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Main Estimates BIV allocation to date Budget 2019 measures Other anticipated authorities Unspent / carried forward Net expenditures
Direct program expenses of large departments
  National Defence 20.4 0.0 0.0 1.7 (0.5) 21.6
  Indigenous Services Canada 9.3 0.8 0.0 1.9 (0.3) 11.8
  Employment and Social Development 7.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 (0.1) 7.8
  Treasury Board Secretariat 13.6 (4.3) 0.0 1.1 (4.0) 6.5
  Global Affairs Canada 6.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 (0.4) 7.1
  Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada 3.1 0.1 0.0 2.1 (0.6) 4.7
  Infrastructure of Canada 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 (0.5) 4.1
  Canada Revenue Agency 4.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 (0.2) 4.3
  Veterans Affairs Canada 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 (0.2) 5.0
  Royal Canadian Mounted Police 3.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 (0.1) 4.0
  Public Services and Procurement Canada 3.2 0.6 0.0 0.7 (0.7) 3.9
  Fisheries and Oceans Canada 2.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 (0.4) 3.3
  Industry Canada 2.9 0.1 0.0 0.3 (0.8) 2.5
  Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada 2.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 (1.6) 2.5
  Correctional Service of Canada 2.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 (0.1) 2.5
  Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada 2.5 0.0 0.0 (0.3) (0.2) 2.1
  Shared Services Canada 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.3 (0.1) 2.0
  Canada Border Services Agency 1.8 0.1 0.0 0.6 (0.3) 2.2
  Environment and Climate Change Canada 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 (0.3) 1.4
  Transport Canada 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 (0.4) 1.4
  Parks Canada 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 (0.5) 1.5
  Natural Resources 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.1) 1.3
  Canadian Heritage 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4
  Health Canada 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 (0.1) 1.5
  Public Safety Canada 1.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 (0.2) 1.1
  Department of Finance 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 (0.1) 1.0
Subtotal 106.0 (1.2) 0.1 16.0 (12.5) 108.3
  Consolidated Crown corporations 5.0 0.4 0.0 1.1 (0.6) 5.8
  Other direct program expenses 15.1 0.9 0.0 2.0 (1.4) 16.5
Total direct program expenses 126.0 0.0 0.1 19.0 (14.5) 130.6
  Major transfers 127.1 0.0 0.0 (0.5) 0.0 126.7
  Public debt charges 22.8 0.0 0.0 (0.3) 0.0 22.6
Total expenses 276.0 0.0 0.1 18.2 (14.5) 279.8
Table A2.13b
Reconciliation of Budget 2019 Expenses with the 2018–19 Main Estimates
billions of dollars

(6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

Net expenditures Netted revenues Tax credits & repayments Accrual & consolidation adjustments Budget expense forecast
Direct program expenses of large departments
  National Defence 21.6 0.4 0.0 7.4 29.3
  Indigenous Services Canada 11.8 0.1 0.0 (0.1) 11.8
  Employment and Social Development 7.8 2.0 0.0 0.2 10.0
  Treasury Board Secretariat 6.5 0.7 0.0 (0.2) 7.0
  Global Affairs Canada 7.1 0.0 0.0 (0.4) 6.8
  Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada 4.7 0.0 0.0 2.5 7.1
  Infrastructure of Canada 4.1 0.0 0.0 (0.9) 3.2
  Canada Revenue Agency 4.3 0.4 4.0 3.9 12.6
  Veterans Affairs Canada 5.0 0.0 0.0 (3.9) 1.1
  Royal Canadian Mounted Police 4.0 1.7 0.0 1.1 6.8
  Public Services and Procurement Canada 3.9 3.6 0.0 (4.1) 3.4
  Fisheries and Oceans Canada 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.6
  Industry Canada 2.5 0.3 0.0 (0.2) 2.5
  Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada 2.5 0.4 0.0 (0.1) 2.9
  Correctional Service of Canada 2.5 0.1 0.0 (0.3) 2.4
  Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
  Shared Services Canada 2.0 0.7 0.0 (0.8) 1.9
  Canada Border Services Agency 2.2 0.0 0.0 (0.1) 2.1
  Environment and Climate Change Canada 1.4 0.1 0.0 (0.1) 1.4
  Transport Canada 1.4 0.1 0.0 (0.1) 1.3
  Parks Canada 1.5 0.0 0.0 (0.5) 1.0
  Natural Resources 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.3
  Canadian Heritage 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
  Health Canada 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6
  Public Safety Canada 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2
  Department of Finance 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
Subtotal 108.3 10.8 4.0 4.6 127.7
  Consolidated Crown corporations 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.8 6.6
  Other direct program expenses 16.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 17.2
Total direct program expenses 130.6 11.5 4.0 5.5 151.5
  Major transfers 126.7 0.0 23.9 21.4 172.0
  Public debt charges 22.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 23.6
Total expenses 279.8 11.5 28.0 27.9 347.1
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
Table A2.14a
Reconciliation of Budget 2019 Expenses with the 2019–20 Planned Estimates
billions of dollars

(1)  (3) (4) (5) (6)

Planned Estimates
Budget 2019 measures Other anticipated authorities Unspent / carried forward Net expenditures
Direct program expenses of large departments
  National Defence 21.2 0.4 1.7 (0.8) 22.6
  Indigenous Services Canada 11.5 0.7 0.3 (0.4) 12.1
  Employment and Social Development 8.2 0.3 0.0 (0.1) 8.4
  Treasury Board Secretariat 7.3 0.0 (2.3) (1.8) 3.2
  Global Affairs Canada 6.5 0.3 0.9 (0.3) 7.3
  Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada 6.0 0.9 1.3 (0.4) 7.9
  Infrastructure of Canada 5.8 0.0 0.7 (0.6) 5.9
  Canada Revenue Agency 4.4 0.1 0.2 (0.2) 4.4
  Veterans Affairs Canada 4.3 0.1 0.4 (0.2) 4.7
  Royal Canadian Mounted Police 3.4 0.1 0.6 (0.1) 4.0
  Public Services and Procurement Canada 3.2 1.0 0.8 (0.7) 4.3
  Fisheries and Oceans Canada 3.0 0.0 1.1 (0.2) 3.9
  Industry Canada 2.6 0.1 0.4 (0.7) 2.5
  Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada 2.6 0.3 1.5 (1.3) 3.1
  Correctional Service of Canada 2.5 0.1 0.1 (0.1) 2.6
  Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada 2.5 0.0 (0.1) (0.1) 2.3
  Shared Services Canada 1.9 0.0 0.3 (0.1) 2.0
  Canada Border Services Agency 1.9 0.2 0.4 (0.2) 2.3
  Environment and Climate Change Canada 1.8 0.0 0.1 (0.1) 1.8
  Transport Canada 1.7 0.2 0.1 (0.3) 1.7
  Parks Canada 1.7 0.0 0.5 (0.5) 1.7
  Natural Resources 1.5 0.0 1.2 (0.1) 2.6
  Canadian Heritage 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
  Health Canada 1.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.5
  Public Safety Canada 0.7 0.2 0.0 (0.1) 0.7
  Department of Finance 0.7 0.0 0.1 (0.1) 0.7
Subtotal 109.7 5.3 10.4 (9.8) 115.6
  Consolidated Crown corporations 6.1 0.3 0.8 (0.4) 6.7
  Other direct program expenses 16.8 0.4 1.0 (1.0) 17.2
Total direct program expenses 132.5 6.0 12.2 (11.3) 139.6
  Major transfers 135.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 135.3
  Public debt charges 24.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.7
Total expenses 292.5 6.0 12.2 (11.3) 299.6
Table A2.14b
Reconciliation of Budget 2019 Expenses with the 2019–20 Planned Estimates
billions of dollars

(6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

Net expenditures Netted revenues Tax credits & repayments Accrual & consolidation adjustments Budget expense forecast
Direct program expenses of large departments
  National Defence 22.6 0.4 0.0 5.8 28.8
  Indigenous Services Canada 12.1 0.2 0.0 (0.2) 12.0
  Employment and Social Development 8.4 2.1 0.0 (0.1) 10.4
  Treasury Board Secretariat 3.2 0.8 0.0 (0.2) 3.8
  Global Affairs Canada 7.3 0.1 0.0 (0.8) 6.6
  Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada 7.9 0.0 0.0 (5.1) 2.7
  Infrastructure of Canada 5.9 0.0 0.0 (1.1) 4.8
  Canada Revenue Agency 4.4 0.4 7.0 4.1 15.9
  Veterans Affairs Canada 4.7 0.0 0.0 (3.5) 1.2
  Royal Canadian Mounted Police 4.0 1.7 0.0 0.7 6.4
  Public Services and Procurement Canada 4.3 3.6 0.0 (4.5) 3.4
  Fisheries and Oceans Canada 3.9 0.0 0.0 (1.5) 2.4
  Industry Canada 2.5 0.3 0.0 (0.2) 2.6
  Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada 3.1 0.3 0.0 (0.1) 3.3
  Correctional Service of Canada 2.6 0.1 0.0 (0.3) 2.5
  Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada 2.3 0.0 0.0 (0.4) 1.9
  Shared Services Canada 2.0 0.6 0.0 (0.8) 1.9
  Canada Border Services Agency 2.3 0.0 0.0 (0.1) 2.2
  Environment and Climate Change Canada 1.8 0.1 0.0 (0.1) 1.8
  Transport Canada 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.8
  Parks Canada 1.7 0.0 0.0 (0.6) 1.1
  Natural Resources 2.6 0.0 0.0 (1.0) 1.6
  Canadian Heritage 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
  Health Canada 1.5 0.1 0.0 (0.1) 1.5
  Public Safety Canada 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1
  Department of Finance 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
Subtotal 115.6 10.9 7.0 (9.6) 123.9
  Consolidated Crown corporations 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.8
  Other direct program expenses 17.2 0.7 0.0 3.5 21.4
Total direct program expenses 139.6 11.6 7.0 (6.0) 152.1
  Major transfers 135.3 0.0 24.3 17.7 177.3
  Public debt charges 24.7 0.0 0.0 1.5 26.2
Total expenses 299.6 11.6 31.3 13.2 355.6
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

1. Main Estimates (2018–19) and Planned Estimates (2019–20)

The Estimates reflect authorities approved in previous budgets that have been confirmed by Treasury Board for all organizations that receive a voted appropriation from Parliament. The Estimates also include, for information, forecasts of spending under most statutory authorities previously provided by Parliament.

The Estimates are presented on a modified cash basis of accounting. Figures are net of certain revenues collected by departments, which departments can respend to reduce the level of appropriations sought from Parliament.

The Estimates are designed primarily to support Parliament’s scrutiny of the portion of government spending that requires annual approval through the appropriation acts. As such, they exclude several programs where authorities and reporting to Parliament are established under separate regimes, most notably the Employment Insurance Operating Account and programs delivered through the tax system.

Estimates include both budgetary authorities (for expenditures which impact the income statement) and non-budgetary authorities (for balance sheet transactions). As the objective in this reconciliation table is to identify transactions and adjustments that affect accrual expenses, the Main Estimates and Planned Estimates columns include only budgetary authorities.

Values in this column for 2019-20 are preliminary, reflecting Treasury Board approvals through the end of February 2019.

2. Budget Implementation Vote Allocations-to-Date (2018–19 only)

The Budget Implementation Vote (BIV) was introduced in the Main Estimates 2018–19. The BIV was included in the Main Estimates of the Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat (TBS), and is being allocated to departments throughout the fiscal year as Budget 2018 measures included in the vote are confirmed by Treasury Board.

This column shows 2018–19 amounts that have been allocated to departments by Treasury Board as of the latest available monthly update published by TBS which reflects Treasury Board approvals through the end of February 2019.

BIV amounts which are remaining to be allocated later in 2018–19 are included within the “Other anticipated authorities” column.

3. Budget 2019 measures

This column is based on the Budget 2019 measures by department (cash basis) in Table A2.11, adjusted to follow the same accounting and presentational conventions as the Estimates (for example, as discussed above, amounts related to the Employment Insurance Operating Account do not flow through the Estimates). 

Measures affecting departments other than the 26 identified in the table are grouped in the “Other direct program expenses” row. Measures which are solely statutory (and budgetary) are included in the “Other anticipated authorities” column.

4. Other Anticipated Authorities

This category captures a range of forecasted authorities for measures and mechanisms that have been approved in principle off cycle or in previous budgets, or that have already been authorized under existing legislation, and that are expected to appear in a Supplementary Estimates or the Public Accounts.

For example, a revolving fund or a department with multi-year appropriations may have authority to carry forward unspent authorities from 2018–19 into 2019–20, but that amount cannot be confirmed until the audited financial results for 2018–19 become available.

Similarly, the Treasury Board manages several central votes for carry-forwards, certain eligible personnel expenditures and other contingencies that are initially presented under Treasury Board Secretariat and subsequently allocated to departments throughout the year as departments meet eligibility requirements. This includes amounts remaining to be allocated from the Budget Implementation Vote for Budget 2018 measures.

Another common reason authorities are not sought until a Supplementary Estimates is that a previous budget or off-cycle measure has not yet received the supporting policy or program approval.

There are also certain statutory authorities, often small, which may not be included for information in the Estimates but which are reported in the Public Accounts.

Note that the sum of the values in the first four columns represent a forecast of total budgetary authorities available by department, consistent with the concepts and definitions applied in the Public Accounts of Canada Volume II, Section 1, Table 5.

5. Unspent/Carried Forward

This column is the forecasted difference between the forecast of potential spending authorities (the sum of authorities from columns one through four) and anticipated spending over that period (net expenditures in column six).

Specifically, the Estimates show the maximum amount of appropriated funding that can be spent at a point in time, while the budget projects the amount of spending that will likely be spent over the entire course of the fiscal year.

The budget forecast recognizes that some amount of authorities included in the Estimates will remain unspent at the end of the fiscal year. These unspent amounts are either carried forward automatically into subsequent years or they “lapse”. Amounts that technically lapse in one year are often spent in a subsequent year as they are reprofiled and included in a future Estimates.

Lapses are influenced by many factors, such as contract and project delays, uncommitted authorities in Treasury Board managed central votes, as well as departmental funds management practices to ensure that spending does not exceed the authorities approved by Parliament.

In terms of the Public Accounts of Canada, Volume II, Section 1, Table 5, this column aligns with the sum of “Available for use in subsequent years” and “Lapsed.”

6. Net Expenditures

Expenditures are largely funded through voted appropriations and statutory authorities, and to a limited extent through departmental revenues. In the Estimates, authorities and expenditures are presented on a “net” basis, i.e. excluding expenditures expected to be funded by departmental revenues, in order to reflect the expected impact on the Consolidated Revenue Fund.

Figures in this column are presented on the same modified cash basis of accounting as the Estimates, and represent a forecast of the corresponding amount in the Public Accounts of Canada, Volume II, Section 1, Table 5.

7. Netted Revenues

Certain expenditures are funded through departmental revenues. Accrual expenses in the budget and the Public Accounts are on a “gross” basis, so revenues that are netted against expenditures in the Estimates are added back in order to arrive at forecasted accrual expenses. Summing the figures in the Net expenditures column with the Netted revenues column would yield “Total gross expenditures” on a modified cash basis of accounting. Net expenditures, Netted revenues and Total gross expenditures are reported by department in the Public Accounts of Canada, Volume II, Section 1, Table 3.

8. Tax Credits & Repayments

This column captures expenditures forecasted to be delivered through the tax system, but not shown in the Estimates. Costs related to the Canada Child Benefit are the largest component in this column (shown in the “Major transfers” row). Tax credits and repayments that are considered direct program expenses are shown in the “Canada Revenue Agency” row, and include, for example, incentives for research and development, the Canada Workers Benefit, and the return of direct fuel charge proceeds through Climate Action Incentive payments associated with the introduction of carbon pollution pricing.

Parliament does not authorize annual spending for such tax expenditures and refundable tax credits, which are instead legislated through the Income Tax Act. These expenditures are reported in the Public Accounts of Canada, Volume II, Section 1, Table 3a. In addition, the Department of Finance Canada’s annual Report on Federal Tax Expenditures includes both historical and forecasted values by program.

9. Accrual & Consolidation Adjustments

This column captures other differences in accounting basis and scope between the Estimates and the budget/Public Accounts of Canada.

The budget is presented on an accrual basis whereas the Estimates are presented on a modified cash basis. As a result, certain items such as acquisitions of tangible capital assets will be reported differently between the two publications. Under accrual accounting, the cost to acquire an asset is amortized over the expected life of the asset, whereas under modified cash accounting, the cost is recognized as disbursements are made. For example, if a building is acquired that has a useful life of 30 years, then accrual accounting will see the cost amortized over the 30-year life of the asset, while cash accounting will portray the cost only in the first few years when the payments are made.

Other examples of accrual adjustments include bad debt expenses, operating expenses and public debt charges related to pensions and benefits for which cash disbursements are expected to be made in subsequent years but for which expenses are accrued in the current year.

All costs related to consolidated specified purpose accounts, and certain costs related to consolidated Crown corporations, are also included here, including some amounts announced in Budget 2019. The most important is Employment Insurance (EI) benefits. Most EI costs are paid directly out of the Employment Insurance Operating Account, rather than a departmental appropriation, and are therefore not specifically included in the Estimates, though they are included in the budget. Similarly, expenses of consolidated Crown corporations that are funded from their own revenues are also captured here.

A final consolidation adjustment included is the reversal of expenses that are internal to government, such as when one department pays another to provide it with a service.

This column represents a forecast consistent with a group of adjustments reported in the Public Accounts of Canada, Volume II, Section 1, Table 3a.

10. Budget Expense Forecast

This column represents final external expenses on an accrual basis, inclusive of all budget and off-cycle measures outlined in the Budget.

4.5 Sensitivity of Fiscal Projections to Economic Shocks

Changes in economic assumptions affect the projections for revenues and expenses. The following tables illustrate the sensitivity of the budgetary balance to a number of economic shocks:

These sensitivities are generalized rules of thumb that assume any decrease in economic activity is proportional across income and expenditure components, and are meant to provide a broad illustration of the impact of economic shocks on the outlook for the budgetary balance. Actual economic shocks may have different fiscal impacts. For example, they may be concentrated in specific sectors of the economy or cause different responses in key economic variables (e.g. GDP inflation and CPI inflation may have different responses to a given shock).

Table A2.15
Estimated Impact of a One-Year, 1-Percentage-Point Decrease in Real GDP Growth on Federal Revenues, Expenses and Budgetary Balance
billions of dollars

Year 1 Year 2 Year 5
Federal revenues


  Tax revenues


    Personal income tax -3.0 -3.1 -3.6
    Corporate income tax -0.7 -0.7 -0.7
    Goods and Services Tax -0.4 -0.4 -0.5
    Other -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
    Total tax revenues -4.2 -4.3 -5.0
  Employment Insurance premiums 0.1 0.5 0.6
  Other revenues -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Total budgetary revenues -4.2 -3.9 -4.5
Federal expenses
  Major transfers to persons
    Elderly benefits 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Employment Insurance benefits 0.9 0.9 0.3
    Canada Child Benefit 0.0 0.1 0.2
    Total 0.8 1.0 0.5
  Other program expenses -0.2 -0.2 -0.5
  Public debt charges 0.1 0.2 0.6
Total expenses 0.7 0.9 0.6
Budgetary balance -4.9 -4.9 -5.1
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

A 1-percentage-point decrease in real GDP growth proportional across income and expenditure components reduces the budgetary balance by $4.9 billion in the first year, $4.9 billion in the second year and $5.1 billion in the fifth year (Table A2.15).

Table A2.16
Estimated Impact of a One-Year, 1-Percentage-Point Decrease in GDP Inflation on Federal Revenues, Expenses and Budgetary Balance
billions of dollars

Year 1 Year 2 Year 5
Federal revenues


  Tax revenues


    Personal income tax -2.8 -2.0 -2.0
    Corporate income tax -0.5 -0.5 -0.6
    Goods and Services Tax -0.4 -0.3 -0.2
    Other -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
    Total tax revenues -3.8 -3.1 -3.0
  Employment Insurance premiums -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
  Other revenues -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Total budgetary revenues -4.0 -3.3 -3.3
Federal expenses


  Major transfers to persons


    Elderly benefits -0.4 -0.6 -0.7
    Employment Insurance benefits -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
    Canada Child Benefit 0.0 -0.1 -0.2
    Total -0.5 -0.8 -1.2
  Other program expenses -0.5 -0.6 -1.2
  Public debt charges -0.6 0.1 0.2
Total expenses -1.5 -1.3 -2.2
Budgetary balance -2.5 -2.0 -1.1
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

A 1-percentage-point decrease in nominal GDP growth proportional across income and expenditure components resulting solely from lower GDP inflation (assuming that the CPI moves in line with GDP inflation) lowers the budgetary balance by $2.5 billion in the first year, $2.0 billion in the second year and $1.1 billion in the fifth year (Table A2.16).

Table A2.17
Estimated Impact of a Sustained 100-Basis-Point Increase in All Interest Rates on Federal Revenues, Expenses and Budgetary Balance
billions of dollars
Year 1 Year 2 Year 5
Federal revenues 1.3 2.0 3.0
Federal expenses 1.9 3.4 5.7
Budgetary balance -0.6 -1.4 -2.7
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

An increase in interest rates decreases the budgetary balance by $0.6 billion in the first year, $1.4 billion in the second year and $2.7 billion in the fifth year (Table A2.17). The decline stems entirely from increased expenses associated with public debt charges. The impact on debt charges rises through time as longer-term debt matures and is refinanced at higher rates. Moderating the overall impact is an increase in revenues associated with the increase in the rate of return on the Government’s interest-bearing assets, which are recorded as part of other revenues. The impacts of changes in interest rates on public sector pension and benefit expenses are excluded from the sensitivity analysis.

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